Atlas · Colorado · CO
Wolf Creek
11,904′ summit · 1,604′ vert · 1,600 acres · avg 430″/yr
Strong bet — Feb 1–15
Delivered 24″+ in 9 of the last 10 seasons
Over 20 winters: 14 of 20 · typical 28", most land 21"–54"
Before you book
This bet missed 1 of the last 10.
None of the last 10 came in under 8″ — a bust, under a third of the bet.
Odds count natural snowfall only. At snowmaking-dependent resorts, early-season cover can be fine in a low-natural-snow year.
The season, window by window
The bet: 12″ of new snow per week, scaled to each window. Counted from real seasons — how our odds work.
Wolf Creek · the shape of a typical winter
Typical new snow, window by window
The middle season — median new snow per window, counted from the last 20 winters. A picture of timing, not a forecast. Snow is streaky; hover any window for the usual range.
| Window | Bet | Delivered | Verdict | Typical | Biggest | Leanest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1–15 | 24″+ | 3 of 10 · 5 busts | Long shot | 17" | 81" 2020 | 0" 2025 · 2 of 20 |
| Nov 16–30 | 24″+ | 7 of 10 · 1 bust | Solid odds | 26" | 103" 2019 | 0" 2012 |
| Dec 1–15 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 · 1 bust | Coin flip | 27" | 159" 2007 | 2" 2010 |
| Dec 16–31 | 30″+ | 5 of 10 · 1 bust | Coin flip | 30" | 189" 2021 | 7" 2013 |
| Jan 1–15 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 · 2 busts | Coin flip | 19" | 150" 2017 | 0" 2010 |
| Jan 16–31 | 30″+ | 5 of 10 · 1 bust | Coin flip | 27" | 91" 2010 | 4" 2011 |
| Feb 1–15 | 24″+ | 9 of 10 | Strong bet | 28" | 120" 2019 | 5" 2015 |
| Feb 16–28/29 | 24″+ | 7 of 10 · 1 bust | Solid odds | 30" | 94" 2019 | 4" 2025 |
| Mar 1–15 | 24″+ | 7 of 10 | Solid odds | 30" | 191" 2019 | 4" 2007 |
| Mar 16–31 | 30″+ | 8 of 10 · 1 bust | Strong bet | 31" | 145" 2023 | 2" 2026 |
| Apr 1–15 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 · 3 busts | Coin flip | 24" | 77" 2026 | 0" 2015 |
| Apr 16–30 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 | Coin flip | 22" | 85" 2016 | 8" 2008 |
Biggest and leanest are the two ends of the same 20 winters Typical is counted from — the year is when it happened, most recent first where more than one season ties.
At the snow sensor
Reading the snow sensor…
Field notes
The snowiest place in Colorado — the pass catches everything the southwest flow throws at it, and the terrain (Alberta-side steeps, Knife Ridge hike lines, endless trees) is far better than its family reputation. A storm day here, with no crowds, is about as pure as lift-served powder gets.
No lodging on the pass itself; Pagosa Springs, with its hot springs, or South Fork hold the beds. Family-owned, cheap tickets, zero pass politics. Watch the southwest storm track and go when it lights up.
Watch this window
We'll email you when Wolf Creek's odds move on the Feb 1–15 window — and the quote gets recorded as it stands today, so we can be graded on it later.
Planning a whole season? See the season outlook.
These are historical odds from the last 20 winters — not a forecast. Inside 16 days of a trip, a forecast is the better instrument; beyond that, counting real seasons is the honest play. Every number on this page is quoted under methodology v1.2.0, the same math we grade ourselves against in public.