Atlas · Northern Rockies · MT
Whitefish
6,817′ summit · 2,353′ vert · 3,000 acres · avg 300″/yr
Strong bet — Dec 16–31
Delivered 30″+ in 8 of the last 10 seasons
Over 20 winters: 14 of 20 · typical 38", most land 30"–48"
Before you book
This bet missed 2 of the last 10.
1 of the last 10 came in under 10″ — a bust, under a third of the bet.
Odds count natural snowfall only. At snowmaking-dependent resorts, early-season cover can be fine in a low-natural-snow year.
The season, window by window
The bet: 12″ of new snow per week, scaled to each window. Counted from real seasons — how our odds work.
Whitefish · the shape of a typical winter
Typical new snow, window by window
The middle season — median new snow per window, counted from the last 20 winters. A picture of timing, not a forecast. Snow is streaky; hover any window for the usual range.
| Window | Bet | Delivered | Verdict | Typical | Biggest | Leanest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1–15 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 · 3 busts | Coin flip | 18" | 54" 2013 | 0" 2016 |
| Nov 16–30 | 24″+ | 3 of 10 · 1 bust | Long shot | 22" | 65" 2010 | 6" 2023 |
| Dec 1–15 | 24″+ | 4 of 10 · 2 busts | Coin flip | 24" | 54" 2010 | 5" 2020 |
| Dec 16–31 | 30″+ | 8 of 10 · 1 bust | Strong bet | 38" | 70" 2017 | 7" 2023 |
| Jan 1–15 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 · 1 bust | Solid odds | 33" | 75" 2020 | 6" 2023 |
| Jan 16–31 | 30″+ | 1 of 10 · 4 busts | Long shot | 16" | 59" 2008 | 2" 2026 |
| Feb 1–15 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 · 1 bust | Solid odds | 22" | 62" 2018 | 6" 2026 |
| Feb 16–28/29 | 24″+ | 7 of 10 | Solid odds | 27" | 45" 2012 | 5" 2010 |
| Mar 1–15 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 · 1 bust | Coin flip | 20" | 51" 2017 | 1" 2021 |
| Mar 16–31 | 30″+ | 1 of 10 · 4 busts | Long shot | 24" | 43" 2014 | 2" 2023 |
| Apr 1–15 | 24″+ | 2 of 10 | Long shot | 14" | 46" 2018 | 7" 2012 |
| Apr 16–30 | 24″+ | 1 of 10 · 2 busts | Long shot | 14" | 42" 2011 | 0" 2015 |
Biggest and leanest are the two ends of the same 20 winters Typical is counted from — the year is when it happened, most recent first where more than one season ties.
At the snow sensor
Reading the snow sensor…
Field notes
Fog-flocked snow ghosts, gladed everything, and a genuine Montana town at the base — Whitefish is atmosphere-dense and crowd-light. The north-side trees and Hellroaring terrain are quietly excellent.
The catch is the inversion fog — some weeks the hill skis by braille — so pair trip timing with a clearing pattern. Amtrak literally stops in town. Cheap by destination standards, and the town punches far above its weight for food and bars.
Watch this window
We'll email you when Whitefish's odds move on the Dec 16–31 window — and the quote gets recorded as it stands today, so we can be graded on it later.
Planning a whole season? See the season outlook.
These are historical odds from the last 20 winters — not a forecast. Inside 16 days of a trip, a forecast is the better instrument; beyond that, counting real seasons is the honest play. Every number on this page is quoted under methodology v1.2.0, the same math we grade ourselves against in public.