Atlas · Colorado · CO
Vail
11,570′ summit · 3,450′ vert · 5,317 acres · avg 354″/yr
Strong bet — Apr 16–30
Delivered 24″+ in 9 of the last 10 seasons
Over 20 winters: 17 of 20 · typical 40", most land 31"–54"
Before you book
This bet missed 1 of the last 10.
None of the last 10 came in under 8″ — a bust, under a third of the bet.
Odds count natural snowfall only. At snowmaking-dependent resorts, early-season cover can be fine in a low-natural-snow year.
The season, window by window
The bet: 12″ of new snow per week, scaled to each window. Counted from real seasons — how our odds work.
Vail · the shape of a typical winter
Typical new snow, window by window
The middle season — median new snow per window, counted from the last 20 winters. A picture of timing, not a forecast. Snow is streaky; hover any window for the usual range.
| Window | Bet | Delivered | Verdict | Typical | Biggest | Leanest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1–15 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 · 4 busts | Solid odds | 25" | 44" 2018 | 1" 2019 |
| Nov 16–30 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 | Coin flip | 24" | 44" 2024 | 0" 2012 |
| Dec 1–15 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 · 1 bust | Solid odds | 28" | 64" 2007 | 6" 2006 |
| Dec 16–31 | 30″+ | 5 of 10 · 1 bust | Coin flip | 29" | 76" 2021 | 8" 2019 |
| Jan 1–15 | 24″+ | 8 of 10 | Strong bet | 25" | 85" 2017 | 4" 2013 |
| Jan 16–31 | 30″+ | 3 of 10 · 1 bust | Long shot | 26" | 47" 2023 | 9" 2022 |
| Feb 1–15 | 24″+ | 7 of 10 | Solid odds | 26" | 57" 2021 | 14" 2022 |
| Feb 16–28/29 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 | Solid odds | 29" | 53" 2026 | 15" 2016 |
| Mar 1–15 | 24″+ | 7 of 10 | Solid odds | 27" | 93" 2019 | 10" 2012 |
| Mar 16–31 | 30″+ | 6 of 10 · 1 bust | Solid odds | 32" | 58" 2011 | 1" 2026 |
| Apr 1–15 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 | Solid odds | 28" | 76" 2018 | 13" 2015 |
| Apr 16–30 | 24″+ | 9 of 10 | Strong bet | 40" | 69" 2010 | 15" 2012 |
Biggest and leanest are the two ends of the same 20 winters Typical is counted from — the year is when it happened, most recent first where more than one season ties.
At the snow sensor
Reading the snow sensor…
Field notes
The benchmark for scale — Back Bowls that ski enormous on a storm day, Blue Sky Basin's gladed playground, and a front side groomed to corporate perfection. Crowded, expensive, and undeniably one of the most complete ski experiences on the continent.
I-70 is the tax: weekend traffic and lift-line density are the worst in the state, so structure trips Tuesday through Friday. Lionshead lodging beats Vail Village on price; Minturn and Avon beat both. The Epic Pass is what makes the economics work.
Watch this window
We'll email you when Vail's odds move on the Apr 16–30 window — and the quote gets recorded as it stands today, so we can be graded on it later.
Planning a whole season? See the season outlook.
These are historical odds from the last 20 winters — not a forecast. Inside 16 days of a trip, a forecast is the better instrument; beyond that, counting real seasons is the honest play. Every number on this page is quoted under methodology v1.2.0, the same math we grade ourselves against in public.