Atlas · Southwest · NM
Taos Ski Valley
12,481′ summit · 3,281′ vert · 1,294 acres · avg 300″/yr
Strong bet — Feb 1–15
Delivered 24″+ in 8 of the last 10 seasons
Over 20 winters: 12 of 20 · typical 29", most land 18"–41"
Before you book
This bet missed 2 of the last 10.
None of the last 10 came in under 8″ — a bust, under a third of the bet.
Odds count natural snowfall only. At snowmaking-dependent resorts, early-season cover can be fine in a low-natural-snow year.
The season, window by window
The bet: 12″ of new snow per week, scaled to each window. Counted from real seasons — how our odds work.
Taos Ski Valley · the shape of a typical winter
Typical new snow, window by window
The middle season — median new snow per window, counted from the last 20 winters. A picture of timing, not a forecast. Snow is streaky; hover any window for the usual range.
| Window | Bet | Delivered | Verdict | Typical | Biggest | Leanest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1–15 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 · 5 busts | Coin flip | 7" | 74" 2024 | 0" 2025 · 2 of 20 |
| Nov 16–30 | 24″+ | 4 of 10 · 1 bust | Coin flip | 13" | 77" 2019 | 0" 2012 |
| Dec 1–15 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 · 2 busts | Solid odds | 23" | 56" 2007 | 0" 2010 |
| Dec 16–31 | 30″+ | 3 of 10 · 2 busts | Long shot | 23" | 103" 2021 | 4" 2017 |
| Jan 1–15 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 · 2 busts | Solid odds | 13" | 132" 2017 | 0" 2010 |
| Jan 16–31 | 30″+ | 4 of 10 · 1 bust | Coin flip | 21" | 82" 2017 | 5" 2009 |
| Feb 1–15 | 24″+ | 8 of 10 | Strong bet | 29" | 75" 2024 | 6" 2013 |
| Feb 16–28/29 | 24″+ | 7 of 10 | Solid odds | 20" | 77" 2015 | 3" 2009 |
| Mar 1–15 | 24″+ | 7 of 10 · 2 busts | Solid odds | 23" | 135" 2019 | 3" 2007 |
| Mar 16–31 | 30″+ | 5 of 10 · 2 busts | Coin flip | 16" | 93" 2023 | 3" 2026 |
| Apr 1–15 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 | Coin flip | 20" | 58" 2026 | 0" 2015 |
| Apr 16–30 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 | Coin flip | 18" | 67" 2016 | 2" 2012 |
Biggest and leanest are the two ends of the same 20 winters Typical is counted from — the year is when it happened, most recent first where more than one season ties.
At the snow sensor
Reading the snow sensor…
Field notes
The Southwest's serious mountain — over half the trail map is advanced terrain, and that's not marketing. Ridge hikes off Kachina, Highline, and West Basin serve committed chutes and trees that rival anything in Colorado, and the Ernie Blake trail culture keeps it delightfully old-school.
The high-and-dry snowpack starts slow most years; deep winter into early spring is prime. The base village is small and pricey — Taos town, forty minutes down the canyon, is the better hang. The hike-to terrain opens on patrol's schedule, so powder patience is part of the deal.
Watch this window
We'll email you when Taos Ski Valley's odds move on the Feb 1–15 window — and the quote gets recorded as it stands today, so we can be graded on it later.
Planning a whole season? See the season outlook.
These are historical odds from the last 20 winters — not a forecast. Inside 16 days of a trip, a forecast is the better instrument; beyond that, counting real seasons is the honest play. Every number on this page is quoted under methodology v1.2.0, the same math we grade ourselves against in public.