Atlas · Southwest · AZ
Sunrise Park
11,100′ summit · 1,800′ vert · 800 acres · avg 250″/yr
Solid odds — Feb 1–15
Delivered 24″+ in 7 of the last 10 seasons
Over 20 winters: 9 of 20 · typical 22", most land 15"–40"
Before you book
This bet missed 3 of the last 10.
None of the last 10 came in under 8″ — a bust, under a third of the bet.
Odds count natural snowfall only. At snowmaking-dependent resorts, early-season cover can be fine in a low-natural-snow year.
The season, window by window
The bet: 12″ of new snow per week, scaled to each window. Counted from real seasons — how our odds work.
Sunrise Park · the shape of a typical winter
Typical new snow, window by window
The middle season — median new snow per window, counted from the last 20 winters. A picture of timing, not a forecast. Snow is streaky; hover any window for the usual range.
| Window | Bet | Delivered | Verdict | Typical | Biggest | Leanest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1–15 | 24″+ | 1 of 10 · 7 busts | Long shot | 1" | 27" 2022 | 0" 2025 · 9 of 20 |
| Nov 16–30 | 24″+ | 2 of 10 · 4 busts | Long shot | 9" | 135" 2019 | 0" 2024 · 2 of 20 |
| Dec 1–15 | 24″+ | 4 of 10 · 4 busts | Coin flip | 18" | 54" 2007 | 0" 2010 |
| Dec 16–31 | 30″+ | 6 of 10 · 3 busts | Solid odds | 23" | 102" 2021 | 0" 2024 |
| Jan 1–15 | 24″+ | 7 of 10 · 3 busts | Solid odds | 22" | 77" 2023 | 0" 2014 |
| Jan 16–31 | 30″+ | 4 of 10 · 3 busts | Coin flip | 19" | 120" 2017 | 2" 2009 |
| Feb 1–15 | 24″+ | 7 of 10 | Solid odds | 22" | 85" 2024 | 1" 2015 |
| Feb 16–28/29 | 24″+ | 7 of 10 · 1 bust | Solid odds | 20" | 81" 2019 | 0" 2025 · 3 of 20 |
| Mar 1–15 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 · 1 bust | Solid odds | 20" | 107" 2019 | 0" 2007 |
| Mar 16–31 | 30″+ | 4 of 10 · 2 busts | Coin flip | 11" | 86" 2024 | 0" 2026 · 2 of 20 |
| Apr 1–15 | 24″+ | 2 of 10 · 4 busts | Long shot | 9" | 26" 2025 | 0" 2018 · 2 of 20 |
| Apr 16–30 | 24″+ | 2 of 10 · 5 busts | Long shot | 4" | 43" 2021 | 0" 2022 · 4 of 20 |
Biggest and leanest are the two ends of the same 20 winters Typical is counted from — the year is when it happened, most recent first where more than one season ties.
At the snow sensor
Reading the snow sensor…
Field notes
The White Mountain Apache Tribe's mountain and Arizona's other real resort — three peaks of mellow, widely spaced terrain, long cruisers, and a high-desert snowpack that rewards cold storms. Advanced pitch is limited, but the Apache Peak steeps are fun when they're open.
It flies under the radar, so powder days last. Staffing and lift openings can run inconsistent and on-mountain services are thin — pack accordingly. Greer and Pinetop hold the lodging.
Watch this window
We'll email you when Sunrise Park's odds move on the Feb 1–15 window — and the quote gets recorded as it stands today, so we can be graded on it later.
Planning a whole season? See the season outlook.
These are historical odds from the last 20 winters — not a forecast. Inside 16 days of a trip, a forecast is the better instrument; beyond that, counting real seasons is the honest play. Every number on this page is quoted under methodology v1.2.0, the same math we grade ourselves against in public.