Atlas · Northeast · ME
Sugarloaf
4,237′ summit · 2,820′ vert · 1,240 acres · avg 200″/yr
Coin flip — Feb 1–15
Delivered 24″+ in 5 of the last 10 seasons
Over 20 winters: 9 of 20 · typical 22", most land 10"–33"
Before you book
This bet missed 5 of the last 10.
2 of the last 10 came in under 8″ — a bust, under a third of the bet.
Odds count natural snowfall only. At snowmaking-dependent resorts, early-season cover can be fine in a low-natural-snow year.
The season, window by window
The bet: 12″ of new snow per week, scaled to each window. Counted from real seasons — how our odds work.
Sugarloaf · the shape of a typical winter
Typical new snow, window by window
The middle season — median new snow per window, counted from the last 20 winters. A picture of timing, not a forecast. Snow is streaky; hover any window for the usual range.
| Window | Bet | Delivered | Verdict | Typical | Biggest | Leanest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1–15 | 24″+ | 1 of 10 · 7 busts | Long shot | 3" | 32" 2018 | 0" 2024 · 3 of 20 |
| Nov 16–30 | 24″+ | 4 of 10 · 2 busts | Coin flip | 12" | 49" 2018 | 1" 2012 |
| Dec 1–15 | 24″+ | 3 of 10 · 2 busts | Long shot | 17" | 41" 2014 | 2" 2022 |
| Dec 16–31 | 30″+ | 2 of 10 · 3 busts | Long shot | 19" | 59" 2012 | 7" 2023 |
| Jan 1–15 | 24″+ | 4 of 10 | Coin flip | 16" | 48" 2024 | 3" 2013 |
| Jan 16–31 | 30″+ | 4 of 10 | Coin flip | 18" | 44" 2023 | 2" 2007 |
| Feb 1–15 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 · 2 busts | Coin flip | 22" | 49" 2008 | 0" 2010 |
| Feb 16–28/29 | 24″+ | 1 of 10 · 2 busts | Long shot | 18" | 63" 2010 | 1" 2007 |
| Mar 1–15 | 24″+ | 4 of 10 · 1 bust | Coin flip | 18" | 54" 2018 | 3" 2010 |
| Mar 16–31 | 30″+ | 1 of 10 · 3 busts | Long shot | 15" | 50" 2024 | 3" 2018 |
| Apr 1–15 | 24″+ | 2 of 10 · 2 busts | Long shot | 12" | 59" 2007 | 2" 2012 |
| Apr 16–30 | 24″+ | 0 of 10 · 4 busts | Long shot | 6" | 57" 2007 | 0" 2013 |
Biggest and leanest are the two ends of the same 20 winters Typical is counted from — the year is when it happened, most recent first where more than one season ties.
At the snow sensor
Reading the snow sensor…
Field notes
Maine's monster — the only lift-served above-treeline snowfields in the East, Brackett Basin's sprawling sidecountry glades, and a remoteness that filters the crowds. The East's most 'western' skiing.
It's far from everything — a commitment trip. Ikon. The Snowfields need a good year to fill; Brackett is more reliable. Carrabassett Valley is the tiny base community.
Watch this window
We'll email you when Sugarloaf's odds move on the Feb 1–15 window — and the quote gets recorded as it stands today, so we can be graded on it later.
Planning a whole season? See the season outlook.
These are historical odds from the last 20 winters — not a forecast. Inside 16 days of a trip, a forecast is the better instrument; beyond that, counting real seasons is the honest play. Every number on this page is quoted under methodology v1.2.0, the same math we grade ourselves against in public.