Atlas · Northeast · VT
Sugarbush
4,083′ summit · 2,600′ vert · 581 acres · avg 269″/yr
Solid odds — Feb 1–15
Delivered 24″+ in 7 of the last 10 seasons
Over 20 winters: 12 of 20 · typical 38", most land 13"–50"
Before you book
This bet missed 3 of the last 10.
None of the last 10 came in under 8″ — a bust, under a third of the bet.
Odds count natural snowfall only. At snowmaking-dependent resorts, early-season cover can be fine in a low-natural-snow year.
The season, window by window
The bet: 12″ of new snow per week, scaled to each window. Counted from real seasons — how our odds work.
Sugarbush · the shape of a typical winter
Typical new snow, window by window
The middle season — median new snow per window, counted from the last 20 winters. A picture of timing, not a forecast. Snow is streaky; hover any window for the usual range.
| Window | Bet | Delivered | Verdict | Typical | Biggest | Leanest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1–15 | 24″+ | 4 of 10 · 4 busts | Coin flip | 4" | 39" 2025 | 0" 2011 · 2 of 20 |
| Nov 16–30 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 | Coin flip | 20" | 71" 2018 | 0" 2015 |
| Dec 1–15 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 · 1 bust | Coin flip | 24" | 73" 2014 | 3" 2015 |
| Dec 16–31 | 30″+ | 3 of 10 · 1 bust | Long shot | 23" | 66" 2022 | 4" 2023 |
| Jan 1–15 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 | Coin flip | 21" | 62" 2024 | 6" 2016 · 2 of 20 |
| Jan 16–31 | 30″+ | 7 of 10 · 1 bust | Solid odds | 24" | 61" 2019 | 7" 2018 |
| Feb 1–15 | 24″+ | 7 of 10 | Solid odds | 38" | 74" 2008 | 4" 2012 |
| Feb 16–28/29 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 | Coin flip | 23" | 57" 2010 | 6" 2007 |
| Mar 1–15 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 | Coin flip | 21" | 79" 2018 | 4" 2010 |
| Mar 16–31 | 30″+ | 3 of 10 · 2 busts | Long shot | 19" | 54" 2024 | 2" 2021 |
| Apr 1–15 | 24″+ | 3 of 10 · 2 busts | Long shot | 14" | 67" 2007 | 0" 2010 |
| Apr 16–30 | 24″+ | 2 of 10 · 4 busts | Long shot | 5" | 41" 2022 | 0" 2017 · 2 of 20 |
Biggest and leanest are the two ends of the same 20 winters Typical is counted from — the year is when it happened, most recent first where more than one season ties.
At the snow sensor
Reading the snow sensor…
Field notes
Mad River Valley soul with real terrain — Castlerock's ungroomed old-school lines are Vermont's best-kept semi-secret, and the Slide Brook sidecountry between its two mountains is a legitimate adventure.
Ikon coverage. The Valley towns of Waitsfield and Warren are charming and quieter than Stowe. Castlerock rewards patience for natural snow. It pairs culturally with next-door Mad River Glen — which is skiers-only, for the snowboarders in the group.
Watch this window
We'll email you when Sugarbush's odds move on the Feb 1–15 window — and the quote gets recorded as it stands today, so we can be graded on it later.
Planning a whole season? See the season outlook.
These are historical odds from the last 20 winters — not a forecast. Inside 16 days of a trip, a forecast is the better instrument; beyond that, counting real seasons is the honest play. Every number on this page is quoted under methodology v1.2.0, the same math we grade ourselves against in public.