Atlas · California/Tahoe · CA
Sugar Bowl
8,383′ summit · 1,500′ vert · 1,650 acres · avg 500″/yr
Strong bet — Mar 1–15
Delivered 24″+ in 8 of the last 10 seasons
Over 20 winters: 13 of 20 · typical 47", most land 18"–90"
Before you book
This bet missed 2 of the last 10.
1 of the last 10 came in under 8″ — a bust, under a third of the bet.
Odds count natural snowfall only. At snowmaking-dependent resorts, early-season cover can be fine in a low-natural-snow year.
The season, window by window
The bet: 12″ of new snow per week, scaled to each window. Counted from real seasons — how our odds work.
Sugar Bowl · the shape of a typical winter
Typical new snow, window by window
The middle season — median new snow per window, counted from the last 20 winters. A picture of timing, not a forecast. Snow is streaky; hover any window for the usual range.
| Window | Bet | Delivered | Verdict | Typical | Biggest | Leanest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1–15 | 24″+ | 3 of 10 · 3 busts | Long shot | 13" | 78" 2017 | 0" 2019 · 3 of 20 |
| Nov 16–30 | 24″+ | 7 of 10 · 2 busts | Solid odds | 21" | 84" 2018 | 0" 2021 |
| Dec 1–15 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 · 1 bust | Coin flip | 29" | 155" 2022 | 0" 2025 |
| Dec 16–31 | 30″+ | 6 of 10 · 1 bust | Solid odds | 42" | 195" 2021 | 0" 2011 |
| Jan 1–15 | 24″+ | 8 of 10 | Strong bet | 25" | 271" 2017 | 0" 2015 |
| Jan 16–31 | 30″+ | 6 of 10 · 2 busts | Solid odds | 36" | 118" 2017 | 0" 2022 |
| Feb 1–15 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 · 3 busts | Solid odds | 29" | 234" 2019 | 1" 2018 |
| Feb 16–28/29 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 · 2 busts | Solid odds | 38" | 160" 2017 | 1" 2020 |
| Mar 1–15 | 24″+ | 8 of 10 · 1 bust | Strong bet | 47" | 174" 2023 | 1" 2007 |
| Mar 16–31 | 30″+ | 7 of 10 · 1 bust | Solid odds | 44" | 133" 2011 | 5" 2015 |
| Apr 1–15 | 24″+ | 7 of 10 · 1 bust | Solid odds | 20" | 92" 2017 | 3" 2008 |
| Apr 16–30 | 24″+ | 2 of 10 · 2 busts | Long shot | 13" | 75" 2022 | 0" 2013 |
Biggest and leanest are the two ends of the same 20 winters Typical is counted from — the year is when it happened, most recent first where more than one season ties.
At the snow sensor
Reading the snow sensor…
Field notes
Donner Summit's storm magnet — first in line for Sierra moisture, with short, punchy palisade steeps, great trees, and history to spare (California's first chairlift). Compact but dense with quality.
An independent mountain. It's the closest real terrain to the Bay side of the summit, so storm Saturdays draw crowds; midweek it's blissful. Slopeside lodging is limited — Truckee is fifteen minutes out.
Watch this window
We'll email you when Sugar Bowl's odds move on the Mar 1–15 window — and the quote gets recorded as it stands today, so we can be graded on it later.
Planning a whole season? See the season outlook.
These are historical odds from the last 20 winters — not a forecast. Inside 16 days of a trip, a forecast is the better instrument; beyond that, counting real seasons is the honest play. Every number on this page is quoted under methodology v1.2.0, the same math we grade ourselves against in public.