Atlas · Colorado · CO
Aspen Snowmass
12,510′ summit · 4,406′ vert · 3,362 acres · avg 300″/yr
Solid odds — Apr 16–30
Delivered 24″+ in 7 of the last 10 seasons
Over 20 winters: 12 of 20 · typical 25", most land 21"–30"
Before you book
This bet missed 3 of the last 10.
None of the last 10 came in under 8″ — a bust, under a third of the bet.
Odds count natural snowfall only. At snowmaking-dependent resorts, early-season cover can be fine in a low-natural-snow year.
The season, window by window
The bet: 12″ of new snow per week, scaled to each window. Counted from real seasons — how our odds work.
Aspen Snowmass · the shape of a typical winter
Typical new snow, window by window
The middle season — median new snow per window, counted from the last 20 winters. A picture of timing, not a forecast. Snow is streaky; hover any window for the usual range.
| Window | Bet | Delivered | Verdict | Typical | Biggest | Leanest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1–15 | 24″+ | 2 of 10 · 4 busts | Long shot | 17" | 31" 2014 | 0" 2019 |
| Nov 16–30 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 | Solid odds | 23" | 47" 2024 | 1" 2012 |
| Dec 1–15 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 · 1 bust | Solid odds | 26" | 63" 2007 | 5" 2006 |
| Dec 16–31 | 30″+ | 3 of 10 · 1 bust | Long shot | 23" | 122" 2021 | 4" 2011 |
| Jan 1–15 | 24″+ | 3 of 10 · 1 bust | Long shot | 20" | 107" 2017 | 5" 2010 |
| Jan 16–31 | 30″+ | 1 of 10 · 1 bust | Long shot | 26" | 35" 2016 | 7" 2025 |
| Feb 1–15 | 24″+ | 7 of 10 · 1 bust | Solid odds | 22" | 48" 2019 | 6" 2022 |
| Feb 16–28/29 | 24″+ | 4 of 10 | Coin flip | 24" | 49" 2022 | 9" 2025 |
| Mar 1–15 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 · 1 bust | Solid odds | 21" | 88" 2019 | 8" 2018 |
| Mar 16–31 | 30″+ | 4 of 10 · 1 bust | Coin flip | 27" | 57" 2023 | 5" 2012 |
| Apr 1–15 | 24″+ | 3 of 10 | Long shot | 18" | 45" 2010 | 5" 2015 |
| Apr 16–30 | 24″+ | 7 of 10 | Solid odds | 25" | 53" 2011 | 9" 2012 |
Biggest and leanest are the two ends of the same 20 winters Typical is counted from — the year is when it happened, most recent first where more than one season ties.
At the snow sensor
Reading the snow sensor…
Field notes
The workhorse of the Aspen four — every terrain type stacked on serious vertical. The Cirque and Hanging Valley Wall bring genuine steeps, Big Burn brings the famous cruising, and the sheer scale swallows crowds whole.
Fly-in logistics are easy by Colorado standards — Aspen's airport sits twenty-five minutes away. Base Village is convenient and quiet at night; downtown Aspen is a short bus ride for the scene. It skis emptiest of the four on powder mornings, because the locals bolt for Highlands.
Watch this window
We'll email you when Aspen Snowmass's odds move on the Apr 16–30 window — and the quote gets recorded as it stands today, so we can be graded on it later.
Planning a whole season? See the season outlook.
These are historical odds from the last 20 winters — not a forecast. Inside 16 days of a trip, a forecast is the better instrument; beyond that, counting real seasons is the honest play. Every number on this page is quoted under methodology v1.2.0, the same math we grade ourselves against in public.