Atlas · Southwest · AZ
Arizona Snowbowl
11,500′ summit · 2,300′ vert · 777 acres · avg 260″/yr
Strong bet — Mar 1–15
Delivered 24″+ in 8 of the last 10 seasons
Over 20 winters: 11 of 20 · typical 27", most land 4"–44"
Before you book
This bet missed 2 of the last 10.
2 of the last 10 came in under 8″ — a bust, under a third of the bet.
Odds count natural snowfall only. At snowmaking-dependent resorts, early-season cover can be fine in a low-natural-snow year.
The season, window by window
The bet: 12″ of new snow per week, scaled to each window. Counted from real seasons — how our odds work.
Arizona Snowbowl · the shape of a typical winter
Typical new snow, window by window
The middle season — median new snow per window, counted from the last 20 winters. A picture of timing, not a forecast. Snow is streaky; hover any window for the usual range.
| Window | Bet | Delivered | Verdict | Typical | Biggest | Leanest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1–15 | 24″+ | 0 of 10 · 7 busts | Long shot | 0" | 29" 2011 | 0" 2025 · 7 of 20 |
| Nov 16–30 | 24″+ | 2 of 10 · 5 busts | Long shot | 4" | 140" 2019 | 0" 2022 · 3 of 20 |
| Dec 1–15 | 24″+ | 2 of 10 · 6 busts | Long shot | 17" | 61" 2009 | 0" 2017 · 2 of 20 |
| Dec 16–31 | 30″+ | 4 of 10 · 5 busts | Coin flip | 21" | 96" 2008 | 0" 2024 |
| Jan 1–15 | 24″+ | 4 of 10 · 3 busts | Coin flip | 14" | 120" 2023 | 0" 2021 · 2 of 20 |
| Jan 16–31 | 30″+ | 3 of 10 · 4 busts | Long shot | 15" | 144" 2010 | 1" 2011 |
| Feb 1–15 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 · 2 busts | Coin flip | 17" | 91" 2024 | 0" 2015 |
| Feb 16–28/29 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 · 2 busts | Solid odds | 22" | 85" 2017 | 0" 2025 · 2 of 20 |
| Mar 1–15 | 24″+ | 8 of 10 · 2 busts | Strong bet | 27" | 103" 2023 | 0" 2007 |
| Mar 16–31 | 30″+ | 5 of 10 · 2 busts | Coin flip | 13" | 109" 2023 | 0" 2026 · 2 of 20 |
| Apr 1–15 | 24″+ | 2 of 10 · 5 busts | Long shot | 6" | 33" 2020 | 0" 2021 · 2 of 20 |
| Apr 16–30 | 24″+ | 2 of 10 · 5 busts | Long shot | 6" | 29" 2024 | 0" 2023 · 4 of 20 |
Biggest and leanest are the two ends of the same 20 winters Typical is counted from — the year is when it happened, most recent first where more than one season ties.
At the snow sensor
Reading the snow sensor…
Field notes
A real mountain hiding in the desert — steep upper-bowl terrain off the Agassiz side of the San Francisco Peaks, long fall-line groomers below. When a storm cycle connects, the volcanic bowls ski like a miniature Rockies resort; between storms it settles into an honest groomer-and-trees hill.
The switchback road up from Flagstaff is the choke point: weekends and powder days jam it by mid-morning, so arrive early or wait out the rush. Midweek storm days are the quiet play — the hill empties out, and the snow keeps.
Watch this window
We'll email you when Arizona Snowbowl's odds move on the Mar 1–15 window — and the quote gets recorded as it stands today, so we can be graded on it later.
Planning a whole season? See the season outlook.
These are historical odds from the last 20 winters — not a forecast. Inside 16 days of a trip, a forecast is the better instrument; beyond that, counting real seasons is the honest play. Every number on this page is quoted under methodology v1.2.0, the same math we grade ourselves against in public.