Powder Compass

Atlas · Southwest · NM

Red River

10,350′ summit · 1,600′ vert · 290 acres · avg 214″/yr

Solid odds — Feb 1–15

Delivered 24″+ in 7 of the last 10 seasons

Over 20 winters: 8 of 20 · typical 20", most land 12"–29"

Before you book

This bet missed 3 of the last 10.

None of the last 10 came in under 8″ — a bust, under a third of the bet.

Odds count natural snowfall only. At snowmaking-dependent resorts, early-season cover can be fine in a low-natural-snow year.

The season, window by window

The bet: 12″ of new snow per week, scaled to each window. Counted from real seasons — how our odds work.

Red River · the shape of a typical winter

Typical new snow, window by window

The middle season — median new snow per window, counted from the last 20 winters. A picture of timing, not a forecast. Snow is streaky; hover any window for the usual range.

0 15 30 45" NovDecJanFebMarApr
Window Bet Delivered Verdict Typical Biggest Leanest
Nov 1–15 24″+ 1 of 10 · 5 busts Long shot 6" 54" 2024 0" 2025 · 2 of 20
Nov 16–30 24″+ 3 of 10 · 4 busts Long shot 9" 55" 2019 0" 2012
Dec 1–15 24″+ 3 of 10 · 2 busts Long shot 17" 44" 2007 0" 2010
Dec 16–31 30″+ 2 of 10 · 4 busts Long shot 14" 69" 2021 3" 2017
Jan 1–15 24″+ 5 of 10 · 4 busts Coin flip 9" 79" 2017 0" 2010
Jan 16–31 30″+ 2 of 10 · 1 bust Long shot 14" 52" 2017 4" 2009
Feb 1–15 24″+ 7 of 10 Solid odds 20" 52" 2024 6" 2013
Feb 16–28/29 24″+ 4 of 10 Coin flip 14" 57" 2015 1" 2009
Mar 1–15 24″+ 6 of 10 · 3 busts Solid odds 16" 92" 2019 2" 2007
Mar 16–31 30″+ 5 of 10 · 2 busts Coin flip 14" 61" 2023 1" 2026
Apr 1–15 24″+ 5 of 10 · 3 busts Coin flip 16" 35" 2026 0" 2015
Apr 16–30 24″+ 2 of 10 · 1 bust Long shot 15" 60" 2016 2" 2012

Biggest and leanest are the two ends of the same 20 winters Typical is counted from — the year is when it happened, most recent first where more than one season ties.

At the snow sensor

Reading the snow sensor…

Field notes

A tiny town-hill throwback where Main Street runs into the lifts — modest vert, a genuine mom-and-pop feel, and better-than-expected tree skiing off the top when the Sangre de Cristos deliver.

It pairs naturally with a Taos trip, forty minutes apart. The town-at-the-base setup makes it one of the best ski-town experiences per dollar in New Mexico — skip it unless bundling, embrace it if you're already in the valley.

Watch this window

We'll email you when Red River's odds move on the Feb 1–15 window — and the quote gets recorded as it stands today, so we can be graded on it later.

Planning a whole season? See the season outlook.

These are historical odds from the last 20 winters — not a forecast. Inside 16 days of a trip, a forecast is the better instrument; beyond that, counting real seasons is the honest play. Every number on this page is quoted under methodology v1.2.0, the same math we grade ourselves against in public.