Atlas · Southwest · NM
Red River
10,350′ summit · 1,600′ vert · 290 acres · avg 214″/yr
Solid odds — Feb 1–15
Delivered 24″+ in 7 of the last 10 seasons
Over 20 winters: 8 of 20 · typical 20", most land 12"–29"
Before you book
This bet missed 3 of the last 10.
None of the last 10 came in under 8″ — a bust, under a third of the bet.
Odds count natural snowfall only. At snowmaking-dependent resorts, early-season cover can be fine in a low-natural-snow year.
The season, window by window
The bet: 12″ of new snow per week, scaled to each window. Counted from real seasons — how our odds work.
Red River · the shape of a typical winter
Typical new snow, window by window
The middle season — median new snow per window, counted from the last 20 winters. A picture of timing, not a forecast. Snow is streaky; hover any window for the usual range.
| Window | Bet | Delivered | Verdict | Typical | Biggest | Leanest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1–15 | 24″+ | 1 of 10 · 5 busts | Long shot | 6" | 54" 2024 | 0" 2025 · 2 of 20 |
| Nov 16–30 | 24″+ | 3 of 10 · 4 busts | Long shot | 9" | 55" 2019 | 0" 2012 |
| Dec 1–15 | 24″+ | 3 of 10 · 2 busts | Long shot | 17" | 44" 2007 | 0" 2010 |
| Dec 16–31 | 30″+ | 2 of 10 · 4 busts | Long shot | 14" | 69" 2021 | 3" 2017 |
| Jan 1–15 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 · 4 busts | Coin flip | 9" | 79" 2017 | 0" 2010 |
| Jan 16–31 | 30″+ | 2 of 10 · 1 bust | Long shot | 14" | 52" 2017 | 4" 2009 |
| Feb 1–15 | 24″+ | 7 of 10 | Solid odds | 20" | 52" 2024 | 6" 2013 |
| Feb 16–28/29 | 24″+ | 4 of 10 | Coin flip | 14" | 57" 2015 | 1" 2009 |
| Mar 1–15 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 · 3 busts | Solid odds | 16" | 92" 2019 | 2" 2007 |
| Mar 16–31 | 30″+ | 5 of 10 · 2 busts | Coin flip | 14" | 61" 2023 | 1" 2026 |
| Apr 1–15 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 · 3 busts | Coin flip | 16" | 35" 2026 | 0" 2015 |
| Apr 16–30 | 24″+ | 2 of 10 · 1 bust | Long shot | 15" | 60" 2016 | 2" 2012 |
Biggest and leanest are the two ends of the same 20 winters Typical is counted from — the year is when it happened, most recent first where more than one season ties.
At the snow sensor
Reading the snow sensor…
Field notes
A tiny town-hill throwback where Main Street runs into the lifts — modest vert, a genuine mom-and-pop feel, and better-than-expected tree skiing off the top when the Sangre de Cristos deliver.
It pairs naturally with a Taos trip, forty minutes apart. The town-at-the-base setup makes it one of the best ski-town experiences per dollar in New Mexico — skip it unless bundling, embrace it if you're already in the valley.
Watch this window
We'll email you when Red River's odds move on the Feb 1–15 window — and the quote gets recorded as it stands today, so we can be graded on it later.
Planning a whole season? See the season outlook.
These are historical odds from the last 20 winters — not a forecast. Inside 16 days of a trip, a forecast is the better instrument; beyond that, counting real seasons is the honest play. Every number on this page is quoted under methodology v1.2.0, the same math we grade ourselves against in public.