Atlas · Southwest · CO
Purgatory
10,822′ summit · 2,029′ vert · 1,635 acres · avg 260″/yr
Solid odds — Feb 16–28/29
Delivered 24″+ in 6 of the last 10 seasons
Over 20 winters: 11 of 20 · typical 26", most land 14"–34"
Before you book
This bet missed 4 of the last 10.
3 of the last 10 came in under 8″ — a bust, under a third of the bet.
Odds count natural snowfall only. At snowmaking-dependent resorts, early-season cover can be fine in a low-natural-snow year.
The season, window by window
The bet: 12″ of new snow per week, scaled to each window. Counted from real seasons — how our odds work.
Purgatory · the shape of a typical winter
Typical new snow, window by window
The middle season — median new snow per window, counted from the last 20 winters. A picture of timing, not a forecast. Snow is streaky; hover any window for the usual range.
| Window | Bet | Delivered | Verdict | Typical | Biggest | Leanest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1–15 | 24″+ | 1 of 10 · 7 busts | Long shot | 11" | 37" 2014 | 0" 2025 · 2 of 20 |
| Nov 16–30 | 24″+ | 4 of 10 · 2 busts | Coin flip | 17" | 54" 2019 | 2" 2012 |
| Dec 1–15 | 24″+ | 3 of 10 · 2 busts | Long shot | 19" | 84" 2007 | 1" 2024 |
| Dec 16–31 | 30″+ | 3 of 10 · 4 busts | Long shot | 22" | 83" 2021 | 3" 2011 |
| Jan 1–15 | 24″+ | 4 of 10 · 3 busts | Coin flip | 13" | 85" 2017 | 0" 2021 |
| Jan 16–31 | 30″+ | 3 of 10 · 3 busts | Long shot | 19" | 55" 2010 | 3" 2022 |
| Feb 1–15 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 | Solid odds | 22" | 66" 2019 | 3" 2015 |
| Feb 16–28/29 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 · 3 busts | Solid odds | 26" | 45" 2019 | 2" 2025 |
| Mar 1–15 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 · 2 busts | Solid odds | 20" | 97" 2019 | 7" 2026 |
| Mar 16–31 | 30″+ | 4 of 10 · 1 bust | Coin flip | 20" | 63" 2023 | 3" 2026 |
| Apr 1–15 | 24″+ | 1 of 10 · 3 busts | Long shot | 19" | 44" 2009 | 2" 2015 |
| Apr 16–30 | 24″+ | 1 of 10 · 1 bust | Long shot | 16" | 48" 2016 | 4" 2008 |
Biggest and leanest are the two ends of the same 20 winters Typical is counted from — the year is when it happened, most recent first where more than one season ties.
At the snow sensor
Reading the snow sensor…
Field notes
Durango's home hill and a sleeper for its size — rolling stair-step terrain with genuinely fun benched steeps, glades most visitors overlook, and a front side that keeps intermediates happy all day. The terraced fall lines break the mountain into distinct zones, so it rides bigger than the acreage suggests.
Lodging at the base is convenient but limited; Durango, about a half hour down the road, is much livelier. Rarely crowded outside holiday weeks — lift lines are a non-issue midweek.
Watch this window
We'll email you when Purgatory's odds move on the Feb 16–28/29 window — and the quote gets recorded as it stands today, so we can be graded on it later.
Planning a whole season? See the season outlook.
These are historical odds from the last 20 winters — not a forecast. Inside 16 days of a trip, a forecast is the better instrument; beyond that, counting real seasons is the honest play. Every number on this page is quoted under methodology v1.2.0, the same math we grade ourselves against in public.