Atlas · Colorado · CO
Powderhorn
9,850′ summit · 1,650′ vert · 1,600 acres · avg 250″/yr
Strong bet — Mar 1–15
Delivered 24″+ in 8 of the last 10 seasons
Over 20 winters: 8 of 20 · typical 15", most land 11"–37"
Before you book
This bet missed 2 of the last 10.
None of the last 10 came in under 8″ — a bust, under a third of the bet.
Odds count natural snowfall only. At snowmaking-dependent resorts, early-season cover can be fine in a low-natural-snow year.
The season, window by window
The bet: 12″ of new snow per week, scaled to each window. Counted from real seasons — how our odds work.
Powderhorn · the shape of a typical winter
Typical new snow, window by window
The middle season — median new snow per window, counted from the last 20 winters. A picture of timing, not a forecast. Snow is streaky; hover any window for the usual range.
| Window | Bet | Delivered | Verdict | Typical | Biggest | Leanest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1–15 | 24″+ | 2 of 10 · 5 busts | Long shot | 9" | 44" 2024 | 0" 2025 · 4 of 20 |
| Nov 16–30 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 · 1 bust | Solid odds | 15" | 64" 2019 | 0" 2012 |
| Dec 1–15 | 24″+ | 3 of 10 · 3 busts | Long shot | 15" | 44" 2009 | 1" 2010 |
| Dec 16–31 | 30″+ | 3 of 10 | Long shot | 24" | 60" 2021 | 4" 2011 |
| Jan 1–15 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 · 1 bust | Coin flip | 13" | 81" 2023 | 0" 2010 |
| Jan 16–31 | 30″+ | 4 of 10 · 3 busts | Coin flip | 24" | 47" 2017 | 4" 2025 |
| Feb 1–15 | 24″+ | 7 of 10 · 1 bust | Solid odds | 18" | 76" 2024 | 0" 2015 |
| Feb 16–28/29 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 | Solid odds | 20" | 42" 2026 | 1" 2016 |
| Mar 1–15 | 24″+ | 8 of 10 | Strong bet | 15" | 100" 2019 | 6" 2007 |
| Mar 16–31 | 30″+ | 7 of 10 · 1 bust | Solid odds | 20" | 75" 2020 | 0" 2015 |
| Apr 1–15 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 | Solid odds | 14" | 52" 2026 | 0" 2015 |
| Apr 16–30 | 24″+ | 7 of 10 | Solid odds | 13" | 48" 2024 | 0" 2012 |
Biggest and leanest are the two ends of the same 20 winters Typical is counted from — the year is when it happened, most recent first where more than one season ties.
At the snow sensor
Reading the snow sensor…
Field notes
Grand Mesa's quiet family hill — storm snow off the world's largest flat-topped mountain, mellow gradients, and surprisingly good trees. Modest but charming.
Western Slope logistics keep it off most itineraries; it fits naturally en route between Colorado and Utah on I-70. Grand Junction is the base. Midweek it's deserted.
Watch this window
We'll email you when Powderhorn's odds move on the Mar 1–15 window — and the quote gets recorded as it stands today, so we can be graded on it later.
Planning a whole season? See the season outlook.
These are historical odds from the last 20 winters — not a forecast. Inside 16 days of a trip, a forecast is the better instrument; beyond that, counting real seasons is the honest play. Every number on this page is quoted under methodology v1.2.0, the same math we grade ourselves against in public.