Atlas · California/Tahoe · CA
Palisades Tahoe
9,050′ summit · 2,850′ vert · 6,000 acres · avg 400″/yr
Solid odds — Mar 1–15
Delivered 24″+ in 7 of the last 10 seasons
Over 20 winters: 12 of 20 · typical 40", most land 16"–77"
Before you book
This bet missed 3 of the last 10.
1 of the last 10 came in under 8″ — a bust, under a third of the bet.
Odds count natural snowfall only. At snowmaking-dependent resorts, early-season cover can be fine in a low-natural-snow year.
The season, window by window
The bet: 12″ of new snow per week, scaled to each window. Counted from real seasons — how our odds work.
Palisades Tahoe · the shape of a typical winter
Typical new snow, window by window
The middle season — median new snow per window, counted from the last 20 winters. A picture of timing, not a forecast. Snow is streaky; hover any window for the usual range.
| Window | Bet | Delivered | Verdict | Typical | Biggest | Leanest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1–15 | 24″+ | 2 of 10 · 4 busts | Long shot | 11" | 45" 2022 | 0" 2019 · 3 of 20 |
| Nov 16–30 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 · 3 busts | Solid odds | 18" | 70" 2010 | 0" 2021 |
| Dec 1–15 | 24″+ | 4 of 10 · 2 busts | Coin flip | 25" | 128" 2022 | 0" 2025 |
| Dec 16–31 | 30″+ | 5 of 10 · 2 busts | Coin flip | 34" | 159" 2021 | 0" 2011 |
| Jan 1–15 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 | Coin flip | 16" | 219" 2017 | 0" 2015 |
| Jan 16–31 | 30″+ | 4 of 10 · 2 busts | Coin flip | 26" | 91" 2010 | 0" 2022 |
| Feb 1–15 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 · 3 busts | Coin flip | 25" | 187" 2019 | 2" 2016 |
| Feb 16–28/29 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 · 2 busts | Coin flip | 35" | 120" 2017 | 1" 2020 |
| Mar 1–15 | 24″+ | 7 of 10 · 1 bust | Solid odds | 40" | 121" 2023 | 1" 2007 |
| Mar 16–31 | 30″+ | 6 of 10 · 2 busts | Solid odds | 32" | 128" 2011 | 5" 2015 |
| Apr 1–15 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 · 1 bust | Coin flip | 14" | 62" 2017 | 3" 2008 |
| Apr 16–30 | 24″+ | 1 of 10 · 5 busts | Long shot | 9" | 53" 2022 | 0" 2020 |
Biggest and leanest are the two ends of the same 20 winters Typical is counted from — the year is when it happened, most recent first where more than one season ties.
At the snow sensor
Reading the snow sensor…
Field notes
KT-22 is the most concentrated expert lift in America — palisades, chutes, and Olympic history in every direction, with Alpine Meadows' quieter bowls now linked by gondola. When Sierra storms stack up, no lift-served terrain offers more consequential fun.
Reno is the practical airport, under an hour out. Sierra cement is real: aim for storm-then-clear cycles, and expect wind and avalanche holds on the good stuff. Olympic Valley lodging is convenient; Truckee is the value-and-charm base. Bay Area weekend traffic is oppressive — ski Sunday through Thursday.
Watch this window
We'll email you when Palisades Tahoe's odds move on the Mar 1–15 window — and the quote gets recorded as it stands today, so we can be graded on it later.
Planning a whole season? See the season outlook.
These are historical odds from the last 20 winters — not a forecast. Inside 16 days of a trip, a forecast is the better instrument; beyond that, counting real seasons is the honest play. Every number on this page is quoted under methodology v1.2.0, the same math we grade ourselves against in public.