Atlas · Southwest · NM
Pajarito Mountain
10,440′ summit · 1,240′ vert · 300 acres · avg 140″/yr
Coin flip — Jan 1–15
Delivered 24″+ in 4 of the last 10 seasons
Over 20 winters: 4 of 20 · typical 9", most land 2"–20"
Before you book
This bet missed 6 of the last 10.
4 of the last 10 came in under 8″ — a bust, under a third of the bet.
Odds count natural snowfall only. At snowmaking-dependent resorts, early-season cover can be fine in a low-natural-snow year.
The season, window by window
The bet: 12″ of new snow per week, scaled to each window. Counted from real seasons — how our odds work.
Pajarito Mountain · the shape of a typical winter
Typical new snow, window by window
The middle season — median new snow per window, counted from the last 20 winters. A picture of timing, not a forecast. Snow is streaky; hover any window for the usual range.
| Window | Bet | Delivered | Verdict | Typical | Biggest | Leanest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1–15 | 24″+ | 1 of 10 · 9 busts | Long shot | 4" | 46" 2024 | 0" 2025 · 3 of 20 |
| Nov 16–30 | 24″+ | 1 of 10 · 5 busts | Long shot | 6" | 37" 2019 | 0" 2012 |
| Dec 1–15 | 24″+ | 0 of 10 · 5 busts | Long shot | 12" | 28" 2011 | 0" 2024 |
| Dec 16–31 | 30″+ | 1 of 10 · 4 busts | Long shot | 14" | 43" 2008 | 0" 2017 |
| Jan 1–15 | 24″+ | 4 of 10 · 4 busts | Coin flip | 9" | 49" 2017 | 1" 2014 |
| Jan 16–31 | 30″+ | 0 of 10 · 5 busts | Long shot | 11" | 40" 2010 | 2" 2009 |
| Feb 1–15 | 24″+ | 2 of 10 · 1 bust | Long shot | 12" | 30" 2024 | 3" 2015 |
| Feb 16–28/29 | 24″+ | 1 of 10 · 4 busts | Long shot | 9" | 33" 2015 | 1" 2009 |
| Mar 1–15 | 24″+ | 2 of 10 · 3 busts | Long shot | 10" | 65" 2019 | 0" 2017 |
| Mar 16–31 | 30″+ | 1 of 10 · 2 busts | Long shot | 9" | 36" 2023 | 0" 2026 |
| Apr 1–15 | 24″+ | 1 of 10 · 4 busts | Long shot | 8" | 28" 2017 | 0" 2015 |
| Apr 16–30 | 24″+ | 3 of 10 · 3 busts | Long shot | 6" | 35" 2019 | 0" 2012 |
Biggest and leanest are the two ends of the same 20 winters Typical is counted from — the year is when it happened, most recent first where more than one season ties.
At the snow sensor
Reading the snow sensor…
Field notes
Los Alamos' scientists' hill — short, sharp, and steeper than its stats suggest, with tight trees and moguls that punish lazy technique. No frills, no crowds, little snowmaking to speak of; it's nearly all-natural and skis honest.
Operations have historically centered on weekends — verify open days before routing through. When Taos is tracked out by mid-morning, Pajarito's leftovers can last for days.
Watch this window
We'll email you when Pajarito Mountain's odds move on the Jan 1–15 window — and the quote gets recorded as it stands today, so we can be graded on it later.
Planning a whole season? See the season outlook.
These are historical odds from the last 20 winters — not a forecast. Inside 16 days of a trip, a forecast is the better instrument; beyond that, counting real seasons is the honest play. Every number on this page is quoted under methodology v1.2.0, the same math we grade ourselves against in public.