Atlas · California/Tahoe · CA
Northstar
8,610′ summit · 2,280′ vert · 3,170 acres · avg 350″/yr
Solid odds — Mar 1–15
Delivered 24″+ in 7 of the last 10 seasons
Over 20 winters: 11 of 20 · typical 31", most land 10"–62"
Before you book
This bet missed 3 of the last 10.
1 of the last 10 came in under 8″ — a bust, under a third of the bet.
Odds count natural snowfall only. At snowmaking-dependent resorts, early-season cover can be fine in a low-natural-snow year.
The season, window by window
The bet: 12″ of new snow per week, scaled to each window. Counted from real seasons — how our odds work.
Northstar · the shape of a typical winter
Typical new snow, window by window
The middle season — median new snow per window, counted from the last 20 winters. A picture of timing, not a forecast. Snow is streaky; hover any window for the usual range.
| Window | Bet | Delivered | Verdict | Typical | Biggest | Leanest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1–15 | 24″+ | 2 of 10 · 4 busts | Long shot | 8" | 42" 2022 | 0" 2019 · 2 of 20 |
| Nov 16–30 | 24″+ | 4 of 10 · 3 busts | Coin flip | 14" | 57" 2010 | 0" 2021 |
| Dec 1–15 | 24″+ | 4 of 10 · 2 busts | Coin flip | 20" | 126" 2022 | 0" 2025 |
| Dec 16–31 | 30″+ | 5 of 10 · 2 busts | Coin flip | 30" | 145" 2021 | 0" 2011 |
| Jan 1–15 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 | Coin flip | 12" | 225" 2017 | 0" 2015 |
| Jan 16–31 | 30″+ | 3 of 10 · 3 busts | Long shot | 23" | 83" 2019 | 0" 2022 |
| Feb 1–15 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 · 3 busts | Coin flip | 20" | 188" 2019 | 1" 2016 · 2 of 20 |
| Feb 16–28/29 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 · 3 busts | Coin flip | 23" | 121" 2017 | 1" 2020 |
| Mar 1–15 | 24″+ | 7 of 10 · 1 bust | Solid odds | 31" | 117" 2023 | 0" 2007 |
| Mar 16–31 | 30″+ | 6 of 10 · 3 busts | Solid odds | 26" | 109" 2011 | 2" 2015 |
| Apr 1–15 | 24″+ | 4 of 10 · 1 bust | Coin flip | 11" | 57" 2017 | 2" 2014 |
| Apr 16–30 | 24″+ | 1 of 10 · 5 busts | Long shot | 9" | 51" 2022 | 0" 2020 |
Biggest and leanest are the two ends of the same 20 winters Typical is counted from — the year is when it happened, most recent first where more than one season ties.
At the snow sensor
Reading the snow sensor…
Field notes
Tahoe's groomer-and-glades resort — impeccable corduroy, sheltered tree runs that ski well mid-storm, and a polished village. The backside steeps are modest; this is the storm-day and family option, not the challenge option.
Epic Pass. Village pricing is premium; Truckee, fifteen minutes out, is the smarter base. Its sheltered aspect makes it the wind-hold hedge when Palisades shuts down.
Watch this window
We'll email you when Northstar's odds move on the Mar 1–15 window — and the quote gets recorded as it stands today, so we can be graded on it later.
Planning a whole season? See the season outlook.
These are historical odds from the last 20 winters — not a forecast. Inside 16 days of a trip, a forecast is the better instrument; beyond that, counting real seasons is the honest play. Every number on this page is quoted under methodology v1.2.0, the same math we grade ourselves against in public.