Atlas · California/Tahoe · NV
Mt Rose
9,700′ summit · 1,800′ vert · 1,200 acres · avg 350″/yr
Solid odds — Mar 1–15
Delivered 24″+ in 6 of the last 10 seasons
Over 20 winters: 11 of 20 · typical 28", most land 11"–55"
Before you book
This bet missed 4 of the last 10.
1 of the last 10 came in under 8″ — a bust, under a third of the bet.
Odds count natural snowfall only. At snowmaking-dependent resorts, early-season cover can be fine in a low-natural-snow year.
The season, window by window
The bet: 12″ of new snow per week, scaled to each window. Counted from real seasons — how our odds work.
Mt Rose · the shape of a typical winter
Typical new snow, window by window
The middle season — median new snow per window, counted from the last 20 winters. A picture of timing, not a forecast. Snow is streaky; hover any window for the usual range.
| Window | Bet | Delivered | Verdict | Typical | Biggest | Leanest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1–15 | 24″+ | 2 of 10 · 4 busts | Long shot | 8" | 38" 2022 | 0" 2019 · 2 of 20 |
| Nov 16–30 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 · 2 busts | Solid odds | 15" | 63" 2010 | 0" 2021 |
| Dec 1–15 | 24″+ | 4 of 10 · 2 busts | Coin flip | 21" | 118" 2022 | 0" 2025 |
| Dec 16–31 | 30″+ | 4 of 10 · 3 busts | Coin flip | 29" | 129" 2021 | 0" 2011 |
| Jan 1–15 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 · 1 bust | Coin flip | 13" | 221" 2017 | 0" 2015 |
| Jan 16–31 | 30″+ | 4 of 10 · 3 busts | Coin flip | 22" | 83" 2019 | 0" 2022 |
| Feb 1–15 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 · 3 busts | Coin flip | 20" | 179" 2019 | 1" 2016 · 2 of 20 |
| Feb 16–28/29 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 · 3 busts | Coin flip | 26" | 105" 2017 | 1" 2020 |
| Mar 1–15 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 · 1 bust | Solid odds | 28" | 116" 2023 | 0" 2007 |
| Mar 16–31 | 30″+ | 6 of 10 · 3 busts | Solid odds | 27" | 119" 2011 | 2" 2015 |
| Apr 1–15 | 24″+ | 3 of 10 · 1 bust | Long shot | 12" | 53" 2017 | 2" 2014 |
| Apr 16–30 | 24″+ | 1 of 10 · 5 busts | Long shot | 11" | 38" 2022 | 1" 2020 |
Biggest and leanest are the two ends of the same 20 winters Typical is counted from — the year is when it happened, most recent first where more than one season ties.
At the snow sensor
Reading the snow sensor…
Field notes
Reno's high-base hill — the highest base elevation in Tahoe — whose Chutes are the real headline: sustained, genuinely steep lines dropping straight under the highway. Cold, dry snow by Tahoe standards; small everything else.
Under half an hour from Reno's airport — the fastest fly-to-steeps logistics in the Sierra. No lodging on the hill; Reno basing is cheap. The Chutes open on patrol's schedule after storms, and they're worth the wait.
Watch this window
We'll email you when Mt Rose's odds move on the Mar 1–15 window — and the quote gets recorded as it stands today, so we can be graded on it later.
Planning a whole season? See the season outlook.
These are historical odds from the last 20 winters — not a forecast. Inside 16 days of a trip, a forecast is the better instrument; beyond that, counting real seasons is the honest play. Every number on this page is quoted under methodology v1.2.0, the same math we grade ourselves against in public.