Atlas · Pacific NW · WA
Mt Baker
5,089′ summit · 1,589′ vert · 1,000 acres · avg 663″/yr
Strong bet — Dec 1–15
Delivered 24″+ in 10 of the last 10 seasons
Over 20 winters: 17 of 20 · typical 56", most land 28"–81"
Before you book
This bet missed 0 of the last 10.
None of the last 10 came in under 8″ — a bust, under a third of the bet.
Odds count natural snowfall only. At snowmaking-dependent resorts, early-season cover can be fine in a low-natural-snow year.
The season, window by window
The bet: 12″ of new snow per week, scaled to each window. Counted from real seasons — how our odds work.
Mt Baker · the shape of a typical winter
Typical new snow, window by window
The middle season — median new snow per window, counted from the last 20 winters. A picture of timing, not a forecast. Snow is streaky; hover any window for the usual range.
| Window | Bet | Delivered | Verdict | Typical | Biggest | Leanest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1–15 | 24″+ | 8 of 10 · 1 bust | Strong bet | 46" | 100" 2009 | 5" 2014 |
| Nov 16–30 | 24″+ | 7 of 10 | Solid odds | 61" | 114" 2009 | 16" 2023 |
| Dec 1–15 | 24″+ | 10 of 10 | Strong bet | 56" | 121" 2012 | 2" 2011 |
| Dec 16–31 | 30″+ | 9 of 10 | Strong bet | 90" | 139" 2007 | 26" 2023 |
| Jan 1–15 | 24″+ | 8 of 10 | Strong bet | 76" | 168" 2020 | 11" 2017 |
| Jan 16–31 | 30″+ | 9 of 10 | Strong bet | 40" | 156" 2018 | 16" 2014 |
| Feb 1–15 | 24″+ | 8 of 10 | Strong bet | 52" | 125" 2008 | 12" 2012 |
| Feb 16–28/29 | 24″+ | 9 of 10 | Strong bet | 57" | 117" 2012 | 4" 2015 |
| Mar 1–15 | 24″+ | 9 of 10 | Strong bet | 49" | 129" 2012 | 16" 2015 |
| Mar 16–31 | 30″+ | 7 of 10 · 1 bust | Solid odds | 54" | 101" 2017 | 8" 2019 |
| Apr 1–15 | 24″+ | 8 of 10 · 1 bust | Strong bet | 36" | 91" 2022 | 6" 2020 |
| Apr 16–30 | 24″+ | 3 of 10 · 3 busts | Long shot | 22" | 49" 2014 | 0" 2026 |
Biggest and leanest are the two ends of the same 20 winters Typical is counted from — the year is when it happened, most recent first where more than one season ties.
At the snow sensor
Reading the snow sensor…
Field notes
Holder of the world single-season snowfall record — 1,140 inches in the winter of 1998–99 — and the spiritual home of freeride snowboarding: the Legendary Banked Slalom, endless natural terrain features, and sidecountry that demands respect. A deep-snow rider's finishing school.
No lodging on the mountain — cabins in Glacier or a base in Bellingham, an hour out. Independent, cheap tickets, cash-only vibes. It rains some weeks and dumps absurdly the rest: buy the storm, not the calendar.
Watch this window
We'll email you when Mt Baker's odds move on the Dec 1–15 window — and the quote gets recorded as it stands today, so we can be graded on it later.
Planning a whole season? See the season outlook.
These are historical odds from the last 20 winters — not a forecast. Inside 16 days of a trip, a forecast is the better instrument; beyond that, counting real seasons is the honest play. Every number on this page is quoted under methodology v1.2.0, the same math we grade ourselves against in public.