Atlas · Colorado · CO
Monarch Mountain
11,952′ summit · 1,170′ vert · 800 acres · avg 350″/yr
Strong bet — Apr 16–30
Delivered 24″+ in 9 of the last 10 seasons
Over 20 winters: 16 of 20 · typical 35", most land 28"–45"
Before you book
This bet missed 1 of the last 10.
None of the last 10 came in under 8″ — a bust, under a third of the bet.
Odds count natural snowfall only. At snowmaking-dependent resorts, early-season cover can be fine in a low-natural-snow year.
The season, window by window
The bet: 12″ of new snow per week, scaled to each window. Counted from real seasons — how our odds work.
Monarch Mountain · the shape of a typical winter
Typical new snow, window by window
The middle season — median new snow per window, counted from the last 20 winters. A picture of timing, not a forecast. Snow is streaky; hover any window for the usual range.
| Window | Bet | Delivered | Verdict | Typical | Biggest | Leanest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1–15 | 24″+ | 4 of 10 · 4 busts | Coin flip | 15" | 46" 2024 | 0" 2025 · 3 of 20 |
| Nov 16–30 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 · 1 bust | Solid odds | 20" | 82" 2024 | 0" 2012 |
| Dec 1–15 | 24″+ | 7 of 10 · 2 busts | Solid odds | 28" | 113" 2007 | 2" 2006 |
| Dec 16–31 | 30″+ | 4 of 10 · 1 bust | Coin flip | 28" | 88" 2021 | 9" 2023 |
| Jan 1–15 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 · 1 bust | Solid odds | 20" | 161" 2017 | 1" 2010 |
| Jan 16–31 | 30″+ | 4 of 10 · 1 bust | Coin flip | 23" | 49" 2014 | 9" 2025 |
| Feb 1–15 | 24″+ | 8 of 10 | Strong bet | 27" | 77" 2017 | 8" 2007 |
| Feb 16–28/29 | 24″+ | 8 of 10 | Strong bet | 27" | 46" 2015 | 7" 2014 |
| Mar 1–15 | 24″+ | 7 of 10 · 1 bust | Solid odds | 29" | 155" 2019 | 8" 2018 |
| Mar 16–31 | 30″+ | 7 of 10 | Solid odds | 27" | 63" 2023 | 7" 2012 |
| Apr 1–15 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 | Solid odds | 27" | 58" 2018 | 0" 2015 |
| Apr 16–30 | 24″+ | 9 of 10 | Strong bet | 35" | 80" 2016 | 7" 2012 |
Biggest and leanest are the two ends of the same 20 winters Typical is counted from — the year is when it happened, most recent first where more than one season ties.
At the snow sensor
Reading the snow sensor…
Field notes
A small, storm-favored gem on Monarch Pass — all-natural snow that stacks up reliably, friendly gladed steeps, and Mirkwood Basin's hike-to terrain that skis far bigger than the trail map admits. Zero pretense.
A Power Pass partner mountain. Salida, half an hour down, is one of Colorado's best small towns and the lodging play. The pass road closes in big storms — time arrivals accordingly. Midweek crowds are functionally nonexistent.
Watch this window
We'll email you when Monarch Mountain's odds move on the Apr 16–30 window — and the quote gets recorded as it stands today, so we can be graded on it later.
Planning a whole season? See the season outlook.
These are historical odds from the last 20 winters — not a forecast. Inside 16 days of a trip, a forecast is the better instrument; beyond that, counting real seasons is the honest play. Every number on this page is quoted under methodology v1.2.0, the same math we grade ourselves against in public.