Atlas · California/Tahoe · CA
Mammoth Mountain
11,053′ summit · 3,100′ vert · 3,500 acres · avg 400″/yr
Solid odds — Mar 16–31
Delivered 30″+ in 7 of the last 10 seasons
Over 20 winters: 9 of 20 · typical 23", most land 9"–52"
Before you book
This bet missed 3 of the last 10.
1 of the last 10 came in under 10″ — a bust, under a third of the bet.
Odds count natural snowfall only. At snowmaking-dependent resorts, early-season cover can be fine in a low-natural-snow year.
The season, window by window
The bet: 12″ of new snow per week, scaled to each window. Counted from real seasons — how our odds work.
Mammoth Mountain · the shape of a typical winter
Typical new snow, window by window
The middle season — median new snow per window, counted from the last 20 winters. A picture of timing, not a forecast. Snow is streaky; hover any window for the usual range.
| Window | Bet | Delivered | Verdict | Typical | Biggest | Leanest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1–15 | 24″+ | 2 of 10 · 3 busts | Long shot | 9" | 91" 2022 | 0" 2019 · 3 of 20 |
| Nov 16–30 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 · 2 busts | Coin flip | 11" | 87" 2017 | 0" 2007 |
| Dec 1–15 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 · 3 busts | Coin flip | 22" | 160" 2022 | 0" 2025 |
| Dec 16–31 | 30″+ | 4 of 10 · 1 bust | Coin flip | 26" | 188" 2021 | 0" 2011 |
| Jan 1–15 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 · 4 busts | Solid odds | 10" | 316" 2017 | 0" 2012 |
| Jan 16–31 | 30″+ | 4 of 10 · 2 busts | Coin flip | 23" | 138" 2021 | 0" 2022 |
| Feb 1–15 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 · 3 busts | Solid odds | 20" | 298" 2019 | 0" 2011 |
| Feb 16–28/29 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 · 3 busts | Coin flip | 33" | 135" 2023 | 0" 2025 |
| Mar 1–15 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 · 1 bust | Solid odds | 18" | 261" 2023 | 0" 2007 |
| Mar 16–31 | 30″+ | 7 of 10 · 1 bust | Solid odds | 23" | 149" 2018 | 0" 2015 |
| Apr 1–15 | 24″+ | 4 of 10 · 1 bust | Coin flip | 10" | 87" 2017 | 0" 2008 |
| Apr 16–30 | 24″+ | 2 of 10 · 3 busts | Long shot | 9" | 34" 2017 | 1" 2008 |
Biggest and leanest are the two ends of the same 20 winters Typical is counted from — the year is when it happened, most recent first where more than one season ties.
At the snow sensor
Reading the snow sensor…
Field notes
A high volcano that skis into summer — big alpine terrain off the top (Climax and the gullies), endless park culture mid-mountain, and enough acreage to handle its Los Angeles crowds better than expected. The Eastern Sierra's flagship.
Flights into Mammoth-Yosemite are weather-fragile; most visitors drive. Ikon anchor. Spring skiing into June and beyond is the unique asset — a late-May trip when everything else is closed. The Village is functional, and the canyon-lodge zones run cheaper.
Watch this window
We'll email you when Mammoth Mountain's odds move on the Mar 16–31 window — and the quote gets recorded as it stands today, so we can be graded on it later.
Planning a whole season? See the season outlook.
These are historical odds from the last 20 winters — not a forecast. Inside 16 days of a trip, a forecast is the better instrument; beyond that, counting real seasons is the honest play. Every number on this page is quoted under methodology v1.2.0, the same math we grade ourselves against in public.