Atlas · California/Tahoe · CA
Kirkwood
9,800′ summit · 2,000′ vert · 2,300 acres · avg 600″/yr
Strong bet — Mar 1–15
Delivered 24″+ in 8 of the last 10 seasons
Over 20 winters: 13 of 20 · typical 45", most land 18"–95"
Before you book
This bet missed 2 of the last 10.
1 of the last 10 came in under 8″ — a bust, under a third of the bet.
Odds count natural snowfall only. At snowmaking-dependent resorts, early-season cover can be fine in a low-natural-snow year.
The season, window by window
The bet: 12″ of new snow per week, scaled to each window. Counted from real seasons — how our odds work.
Kirkwood · the shape of a typical winter
Typical new snow, window by window
The middle season — median new snow per window, counted from the last 20 winters. A picture of timing, not a forecast. Snow is streaky; hover any window for the usual range.
| Window | Bet | Delivered | Verdict | Typical | Biggest | Leanest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1–15 | 24″+ | 4 of 10 · 3 busts | Coin flip | 20" | 84" 2022 | 0" 2019 · 3 of 20 |
| Nov 16–30 | 24″+ | 8 of 10 · 2 busts | Strong bet | 26" | 122" 2017 | 0" 2007 |
| Dec 1–15 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 · 1 bust | Solid odds | 39" | 197" 2022 | 0" 2025 |
| Dec 16–31 | 30″+ | 6 of 10 · 1 bust | Solid odds | 46" | 188" 2021 | 0" 2011 |
| Jan 1–15 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 | Solid odds | 24" | 354" 2017 | 0" 2015 |
| Jan 16–31 | 30″+ | 7 of 10 · 2 busts | Solid odds | 43" | 140" 2017 | 0" 2022 |
| Feb 1–15 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 · 3 busts | Solid odds | 34" | 310" 2019 | 2" 2016 |
| Feb 16–28/29 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 · 3 busts | Solid odds | 50" | 161" 2017 | 3" 2020 |
| Mar 1–15 | 24″+ | 8 of 10 · 1 bust | Strong bet | 45" | 212" 2023 | 0" 2007 |
| Mar 16–31 | 30″+ | 7 of 10 | Solid odds | 49" | 171" 2011 | 5" 2015 |
| Apr 1–15 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 · 1 bust | Solid odds | 22" | 102" 2017 | 3" 2008 |
| Apr 16–30 | 24″+ | 3 of 10 · 3 busts | Long shot | 16" | 71" 2022 | 1" 2013 |
Biggest and leanest are the two ends of the same 20 winters Typical is counted from — the year is when it happened, most recent first where more than one season ties.
At the snow sensor
Reading the snow sensor…
Field notes
The Tahoe steeps connoisseur's pick — the Cirque, Wagon Wheel, and its own Palisades deliver sustained expert terrain, and a high base catches more snow and keeps it colder than the lake-level resorts. Remote enough to stay uncrowded.
The highway access closes in big storms — the isolation is both the feature and the risk. Epic Pass. Base amenities are minimal; most visitors day-trip from South Lake. For deep-winter windows, the odds tables here speak for themselves.
Watch this window
We'll email you when Kirkwood's odds move on the Mar 1–15 window — and the quote gets recorded as it stands today, so we can be graded on it later.
Planning a whole season? See the season outlook.
These are historical odds from the last 20 winters — not a forecast. Inside 16 days of a trip, a forecast is the better instrument; beyond that, counting real seasons is the honest play. Every number on this page is quoted under methodology v1.2.0, the same math we grade ourselves against in public.