Atlas · Colorado · CO
Keystone
12,408′ summit · 3,128′ vert · 3,149 acres · avg 235″/yr
Coin flip — Apr 16–30
Delivered 24″+ in 5 of the last 10 seasons
Over 20 winters: 12 of 20 · typical 30", most land 22"–36"
Before you book
This bet missed 5 of the last 10.
None of the last 10 came in under 8″ — a bust, under a third of the bet.
Odds count natural snowfall only. At snowmaking-dependent resorts, early-season cover can be fine in a low-natural-snow year.
The season, window by window
The bet: 12″ of new snow per week, scaled to each window. Counted from real seasons — how our odds work.
Keystone · the shape of a typical winter
Typical new snow, window by window
The middle season — median new snow per window, counted from the last 20 winters. A picture of timing, not a forecast. Snow is streaky; hover any window for the usual range.
| Window | Bet | Delivered | Verdict | Typical | Biggest | Leanest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1–15 | 24″+ | 3 of 10 · 4 busts | Long shot | 12" | 29" 2022 | 1" 2025 · 2 of 20 |
| Nov 16–30 | 24″+ | 2 of 10 · 2 busts | Long shot | 14" | 29" 2024 | 0" 2012 |
| Dec 1–15 | 24″+ | 4 of 10 · 1 bust | Coin flip | 17" | 41" 2007 | 3" 2024 |
| Dec 16–31 | 30″+ | 1 of 10 · 2 busts | Long shot | 20" | 40" 2021 | 8" 2023 |
| Jan 1–15 | 24″+ | 4 of 10 · 1 bust | Coin flip | 14" | 60" 2017 | 2" 2013 |
| Jan 16–31 | 30″+ | 0 of 10 · 1 bust | Long shot | 15" | 32" 2014 | 7" 2022 |
| Feb 1–15 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 | Coin flip | 17" | 42" 2020 | 9" 2009 |
| Feb 16–28/29 | 24″+ | 3 of 10 | Long shot | 18" | 36" 2026 | 10" 2016 |
| Mar 1–15 | 24″+ | 3 of 10 | Long shot | 17" | 65" 2019 | 6" 2012 |
| Mar 16–31 | 30″+ | 0 of 10 · 1 bust | Long shot | 24" | 37" 2011 | 2" 2026 |
| Apr 1–15 | 24″+ | 1 of 10 | Long shot | 20" | 48" 2018 | 8" 2015 |
| Apr 16–30 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 | Coin flip | 30" | 51" 2024 | 9" 2012 |
Biggest and leanest are the two ends of the same 20 winters Typical is counted from — the year is when it happened, most recent first where more than one season ties.
At the snow sensor
Reading the snow sensor…
Field notes
Three stacked mountains — a front face for cruising, the Outback for trees and cat-served bowls, and one of the largest night-skiing operations in the country on Dercum. Quietly better than its family branding, especially for glade skiers.
It sits closest of the majors to Denver's traffic shadow — weekends run heavy, weekdays fine. The Outback cat access is cheap and skips the hike. River Run lodging is convenient and mid-priced; Dillon and Silverthorne save real money ten minutes away.
Watch this window
We'll email you when Keystone's odds move on the Apr 16–30 window — and the quote gets recorded as it stands today, so we can be graded on it later.
Planning a whole season? See the season outlook.
These are historical odds from the last 20 winters — not a forecast. Inside 16 days of a trip, a forecast is the better instrument; beyond that, counting real seasons is the honest play. Every number on this page is quoted under methodology v1.2.0, the same math we grade ourselves against in public.