Atlas · Northeast · VT
Jay Peak
3,968′ summit · 2,153′ vert · 385 acres · avg 359″/yr
Strong bet — Jan 1–15
Delivered 24″+ in 9 of the last 10 seasons
Over 20 winters: 16 of 20 · typical 34", most land 27"–49"
Before you book
This bet missed 1 of the last 10.
None of the last 10 came in under 8″ — a bust, under a third of the bet.
Odds count natural snowfall only. At snowmaking-dependent resorts, early-season cover can be fine in a low-natural-snow year.
The season, window by window
The bet: 12″ of new snow per week, scaled to each window. Counted from real seasons — how our odds work.
Jay Peak · the shape of a typical winter
Typical new snow, window by window
The middle season — median new snow per window, counted from the last 20 winters. A picture of timing, not a forecast. Snow is streaky; hover any window for the usual range.
| Window | Bet | Delivered | Verdict | Typical | Biggest | Leanest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1–15 | 24″+ | 3 of 10 · 5 busts | Long shot | 6" | 60" 2025 | 1" 2022 |
| Nov 16–30 | 24″+ | 9 of 10 | Strong bet | 29" | 81" 2018 | 1" 2006 |
| Dec 1–15 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 | Coin flip | 32" | 84" 2014 | 8" 2022 |
| Dec 16–31 | 30″+ | 6 of 10 · 1 bust | Solid odds | 31" | 80" 2007 | 6" 2023 |
| Jan 1–15 | 24″+ | 9 of 10 | Strong bet | 34" | 60" 2024 | 12" 2014 |
| Jan 16–31 | 30″+ | 6 of 10 | Solid odds | 29" | 76" 2019 | 11" 2007 |
| Feb 1–15 | 24″+ | 8 of 10 | Strong bet | 39" | 81" 2007 | 9" 2012 |
| Feb 16–28/29 | 24″+ | 7 of 10 | Solid odds | 29" | 65" 2010 | 12" 2007 |
| Mar 1–15 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 · 1 bust | Solid odds | 30" | 89" 2011 | 2" 2010 |
| Mar 16–31 | 30″+ | 6 of 10 · 2 busts | Solid odds | 30" | 53" 2007 | 5" 2012 |
| Apr 1–15 | 24″+ | 4 of 10 · 1 bust | Coin flip | 18" | 89" 2007 | 1" 2023 |
| Apr 16–30 | 24″+ | 3 of 10 · 5 busts | Long shot | 7" | 48" 2010 | 0" 2017 |
Biggest and leanest are the two ends of the same 20 winters Typical is counted from — the year is when it happened, most recent first where more than one season ties.
At the snow sensor
Reading the snow sensor…
Field notes
The East's snow outlier — Rockies-grade totals falling on the border ridge, with the best glade network in eastern North America. When the Jay Cloud delivers, it's powder skiing that has no business existing in Vermont.
Far north — closer to Montreal than Boston — and the remoteness keeps crowds sane. The indoor water park is the family bribe. If you chase one East Coast storm a year, chase it here.
Watch this window
We'll email you when Jay Peak's odds move on the Jan 1–15 window — and the quote gets recorded as it stands today, so we can be graded on it later.
Planning a whole season? See the season outlook.
These are historical odds from the last 20 winters — not a forecast. Inside 16 days of a trip, a forecast is the better instrument; beyond that, counting real seasons is the honest play. Every number on this page is quoted under methodology v1.2.0, the same math we grade ourselves against in public.