Atlas · California/Tahoe · CA
Heavenly
10,067′ summit · 3,500′ vert · 4,800 acres · avg 360″/yr
Solid odds — Mar 16–31
Delivered 30″+ in 7 of the last 10 seasons
Over 20 winters: 10 of 20 · typical 29", most land 11"–43"
Before you book
This bet missed 3 of the last 10.
None of the last 10 came in under 10″ — a bust, under a third of the bet.
Odds count natural snowfall only. At snowmaking-dependent resorts, early-season cover can be fine in a low-natural-snow year.
The season, window by window
The bet: 12″ of new snow per week, scaled to each window. Counted from real seasons — how our odds work.
Heavenly · the shape of a typical winter
Typical new snow, window by window
The middle season — median new snow per window, counted from the last 20 winters. A picture of timing, not a forecast. Snow is streaky; hover any window for the usual range.
| Window | Bet | Delivered | Verdict | Typical | Biggest | Leanest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1–15 | 24″+ | 2 of 10 · 3 busts | Long shot | 11" | 50" 2022 | 0" 2019 · 3 of 20 |
| Nov 16–30 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 · 2 busts | Coin flip | 15" | 76" 2017 | 0" 2022 |
| Dec 1–15 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 · 3 busts | Coin flip | 21" | 120" 2022 | 0" 2025 |
| Dec 16–31 | 30″+ | 5 of 10 · 1 bust | Coin flip | 28" | 130" 2021 | 0" 2011 |
| Jan 1–15 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 · 1 bust | Solid odds | 14" | 225" 2017 | 0" 2015 |
| Jan 16–31 | 30″+ | 5 of 10 · 2 busts | Coin flip | 26" | 90" 2017 | 0" 2022 |
| Feb 1–15 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 · 3 busts | Coin flip | 21" | 194" 2019 | 1" 2016 |
| Feb 16–28/29 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 · 3 busts | Coin flip | 25" | 106" 2017 | 2" 2020 |
| Mar 1–15 | 24″+ | 7 of 10 · 1 bust | Solid odds | 27" | 127" 2023 | 0" 2007 |
| Mar 16–31 | 30″+ | 7 of 10 | Solid odds | 29" | 105" 2011 | 2" 2015 |
| Apr 1–15 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 · 2 busts | Coin flip | 12" | 63" 2017 | 2" 2008 |
| Apr 16–30 | 24″+ | 1 of 10 · 5 busts | Long shot | 9" | 45" 2022 | 0" 2013 |
Biggest and leanest are the two ends of the same 20 winters Typical is counted from — the year is when it happened, most recent first where more than one season ties.
At the snow sensor
Reading the snow sensor…
Field notes
A sprawling straddle of the Nevada line with the best lake views in skiing — Mott and Killebrew Canyons bring real steeps, but the mountain's essence is long cruisers above an unreal blue backdrop. More scenery-forward than terrain-forward.
South Lake Tahoe basing means casinos, cheap beds, and crowds. Epic Pass. The California and Nevada base areas load very differently — the Stagecoach side dodges the gondola masses. Wind closes the upper mountain regularly.
Watch this window
We'll email you when Heavenly's odds move on the Mar 16–31 window — and the quote gets recorded as it stands today, so we can be graded on it later.
Planning a whole season? See the season outlook.
These are historical odds from the last 20 winters — not a forecast. Inside 16 days of a trip, a forecast is the better instrument; beyond that, counting real seasons is the honest play. Every number on this page is quoted under methodology v1.2.0, the same math we grade ourselves against in public.