Powder Compass

Atlas · British Columbia · BC

Fernie

6,316′ summit · 3,550′ vert · 2,500 acres · avg 350″/yr

Strong bet — Dec 16–31

Delivered 30″+ in 9 of the last 10 seasons

Over 20 winters: 15 of 20 · typical 38", most land 31"–50"

Before you book

This bet missed 1 of the last 10.

None of the last 10 came in under 10″ — a bust, under a third of the bet.

Odds count natural snowfall only. At snowmaking-dependent resorts, early-season cover can be fine in a low-natural-snow year.

The season, window by window

The bet: 12″ of new snow per week, scaled to each window. Counted from real seasons — how our odds work.

Fernie · the shape of a typical winter

Typical new snow, window by window

The middle season — median new snow per window, counted from the last 20 winters. A picture of timing, not a forecast. Snow is streaky; hover any window for the usual range.

0 20 40 60" NovDecJanFebMarApr
Window Bet Delivered Verdict Typical Biggest Leanest
Nov 1–15 24″+ 6 of 10 · 1 bust Solid odds 27" 58" 2006 7" 2019
Nov 16–30 24″+ 5 of 10 · 1 bust Coin flip 33" 73" 2014 6" 2023 · 2 of 20
Dec 1–15 24″+ 6 of 10 Solid odds 30" 54" 2012 7" 2011
Dec 16–31 30″+ 9 of 10 Strong bet 38" 75" 2025 11" 2023
Jan 1–15 24″+ 6 of 10 · 1 bust Solid odds 36" 68" 2020 6" 2023
Jan 16–31 30″+ 1 of 10 · 3 busts Long shot 15" 60" 2018 3" 2026
Feb 1–15 24″+ 4 of 10 Coin flip 21" 66" 2017 9" 2022
Feb 16–28/29 24″+ 6 of 10 Solid odds 29" 49" 2012 5" 2010
Mar 1–15 24″+ 6 of 10 · 1 bust Solid odds 33" 67" 2012 5" 2021
Mar 16–31 30″+ 5 of 10 · 2 busts Coin flip 32" 66" 2012 2" 2019
Apr 1–15 24″+ 2 of 10 Long shot 17" 57" 2011 4" 2016
Apr 16–30 24″+ 1 of 10 · 1 bust Long shot 18" 42" 2011 1" 2016

Biggest and leanest are the two ends of the same 20 winters Typical is counted from — the year is when it happened, most recent first where more than one season ties.

At the snow sensor

Reading the snow sensor…

Field notes

Five alpine bowls stacked over a legit coal-mining town, reliable Lizard Range powder, and steeps — Polar Peak, the Saddles — that reward return visits. The most complete mountain in the Canadian Rockies' powder belt.

Calgary or Cranbrook for flights. Epic-affiliated. Town beats village for character and cost, and the Powder Highway neighbors — Kimberley, Red, Whitewater — make it a natural road-trip anchor.

Watch this window

We'll email you when Fernie's odds move on the Dec 16–31 window — and the quote gets recorded as it stands today, so we can be graded on it later.

Planning a whole season? See the season outlook.

These are historical odds from the last 20 winters — not a forecast. Inside 16 days of a trip, a forecast is the better instrument; beyond that, counting real seasons is the honest play. Every number on this page is quoted under methodology v1.2.0, the same math we grade ourselves against in public.