Atlas · British Columbia · BC
Fernie
6,316′ summit · 3,550′ vert · 2,500 acres · avg 350″/yr
Strong bet — Dec 16–31
Delivered 30″+ in 9 of the last 10 seasons
Over 20 winters: 15 of 20 · typical 38", most land 31"–50"
Before you book
This bet missed 1 of the last 10.
None of the last 10 came in under 10″ — a bust, under a third of the bet.
Odds count natural snowfall only. At snowmaking-dependent resorts, early-season cover can be fine in a low-natural-snow year.
The season, window by window
The bet: 12″ of new snow per week, scaled to each window. Counted from real seasons — how our odds work.
Fernie · the shape of a typical winter
Typical new snow, window by window
The middle season — median new snow per window, counted from the last 20 winters. A picture of timing, not a forecast. Snow is streaky; hover any window for the usual range.
| Window | Bet | Delivered | Verdict | Typical | Biggest | Leanest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1–15 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 · 1 bust | Solid odds | 27" | 58" 2006 | 7" 2019 |
| Nov 16–30 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 · 1 bust | Coin flip | 33" | 73" 2014 | 6" 2023 · 2 of 20 |
| Dec 1–15 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 | Solid odds | 30" | 54" 2012 | 7" 2011 |
| Dec 16–31 | 30″+ | 9 of 10 | Strong bet | 38" | 75" 2025 | 11" 2023 |
| Jan 1–15 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 · 1 bust | Solid odds | 36" | 68" 2020 | 6" 2023 |
| Jan 16–31 | 30″+ | 1 of 10 · 3 busts | Long shot | 15" | 60" 2018 | 3" 2026 |
| Feb 1–15 | 24″+ | 4 of 10 | Coin flip | 21" | 66" 2017 | 9" 2022 |
| Feb 16–28/29 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 | Solid odds | 29" | 49" 2012 | 5" 2010 |
| Mar 1–15 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 · 1 bust | Solid odds | 33" | 67" 2012 | 5" 2021 |
| Mar 16–31 | 30″+ | 5 of 10 · 2 busts | Coin flip | 32" | 66" 2012 | 2" 2019 |
| Apr 1–15 | 24″+ | 2 of 10 | Long shot | 17" | 57" 2011 | 4" 2016 |
| Apr 16–30 | 24″+ | 1 of 10 · 1 bust | Long shot | 18" | 42" 2011 | 1" 2016 |
Biggest and leanest are the two ends of the same 20 winters Typical is counted from — the year is when it happened, most recent first where more than one season ties.
At the snow sensor
Reading the snow sensor…
Field notes
Five alpine bowls stacked over a legit coal-mining town, reliable Lizard Range powder, and steeps — Polar Peak, the Saddles — that reward return visits. The most complete mountain in the Canadian Rockies' powder belt.
Calgary or Cranbrook for flights. Epic-affiliated. Town beats village for character and cost, and the Powder Highway neighbors — Kimberley, Red, Whitewater — make it a natural road-trip anchor.
Watch this window
We'll email you when Fernie's odds move on the Dec 16–31 window — and the quote gets recorded as it stands today, so we can be graded on it later.
Planning a whole season? See the season outlook.
These are historical odds from the last 20 winters — not a forecast. Inside 16 days of a trip, a forecast is the better instrument; beyond that, counting real seasons is the honest play. Every number on this page is quoted under methodology v1.2.0, the same math we grade ourselves against in public.