Powder Compass

Atlas · Colorado · CO

Buttermilk

9,900′ summit · 2,030′ vert · 470 acres · avg 200″/yr

Coin flip — Mar 1–15

Delivered 24″+ in 4 of the last 10 seasons

Over 20 winters: 4 of 20 · typical 18", most land 10"–21"

Before you book

This bet missed 6 of the last 10.

2 of the last 10 came in under 8″ — a bust, under a third of the bet.

Odds count natural snowfall only. At snowmaking-dependent resorts, early-season cover can be fine in a low-natural-snow year.

The season, window by window

The bet: 12″ of new snow per week, scaled to each window. Counted from real seasons — how our odds work.

Buttermilk · the shape of a typical winter

Typical new snow, window by window

The middle season — median new snow per window, counted from the last 20 winters. A picture of timing, not a forecast. Snow is streaky; hover any window for the usual range.

0 10 20 30" NovDecJanFebMarApr
Window Bet Delivered Verdict Typical Biggest Leanest
Nov 1–15 24″+ 0 of 10 · 5 busts Long shot 12" 24" 2014 0" 2025 · 2 of 20
Nov 16–30 24″+ 1 of 10 Long shot 14" 33" 2024 1" 2012
Dec 1–15 24″+ 2 of 10 · 2 busts Long shot 18" 43" 2007 4" 2006
Dec 16–31 30″+ 1 of 10 · 3 busts Long shot 14" 56" 2021 4" 2011
Jan 1–15 24″+ 1 of 10 · 1 bust Long shot 12" 41" 2017 4" 2013
Jan 16–31 30″+ 0 of 10 · 3 busts Long shot 18" 26" 2014 5" 2022
Feb 1–15 24″+ 3 of 10 · 2 busts Long shot 15" 31" 2008 6" 2022
Feb 16–28/29 24″+ 1 of 10 · 1 bust Long shot 17" 27" 2022 5" 2025
Mar 1–15 24″+ 4 of 10 · 2 busts Coin flip 18" 49" 2019 6" 2017
Mar 16–31 30″+ 1 of 10 · 2 busts Long shot 17" 37" 2023 0" 2026
Apr 1–15 24″+ 2 of 10 Long shot 17" 30" 2013 5" 2015
Apr 16–30 24″+ 1 of 10 Long shot 17" 40" 2011 8" 2012

Biggest and leanest are the two ends of the same 20 winters Typical is counted from — the year is when it happened, most recent first where more than one season ties.

At the snow sensor

Reading the snow sensor…

Field notes

X Games home turf: immaculate parks, mellow gradients, and deceptively good learning terrain. For a strong rider it's a park day or a family day, full stop.

The fourth-day option on an Aspen trip, or the main event if park laps are the agenda. Uncrowded and modestly priced by Aspen standards — and the Cliffhouse tamales are a legitimate lunch destination.

Watch this window

We'll email you when Buttermilk's odds move on the Mar 1–15 window — and the quote gets recorded as it stands today, so we can be graded on it later.

Planning a whole season? See the season outlook.

These are historical odds from the last 20 winters — not a forecast. Inside 16 days of a trip, a forecast is the better instrument; beyond that, counting real seasons is the honest play. Every number on this page is quoted under methodology v1.2.0, the same math we grade ourselves against in public.