Atlas · Northern Rockies · MT
Big Sky
11,166′ summit · 4,366′ vert · 5,850 acres · avg 400″/yr
Strong bet — Apr 1–15
Delivered 24″+ in 10 of the last 10 seasons
Over 20 winters: 18 of 20 · typical 43", most land 32"–51"
Before you book
This bet missed 0 of the last 10.
None of the last 10 came in under 8″ — a bust, under a third of the bet.
Odds count natural snowfall only. At snowmaking-dependent resorts, early-season cover can be fine in a low-natural-snow year.
The season, window by window
The bet: 12″ of new snow per week, scaled to each window. Counted from real seasons — how our odds work.
Big Sky · the shape of a typical winter
Typical new snow, window by window
The middle season — median new snow per window, counted from the last 20 winters. A picture of timing, not a forecast. Snow is streaky; hover any window for the usual range.
| Window | Bet | Delivered | Verdict | Typical | Biggest | Leanest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1–15 | 24″+ | 7 of 10 · 1 bust | Solid odds | 27" | 86" 2017 | 1" 2016 |
| Nov 16–30 | 24″+ | 7 of 10 | Solid odds | 25" | 59" 2010 | 12" 2023 |
| Dec 1–15 | 24″+ | 7 of 10 | Solid odds | 28" | 46" 2025 | 12" 2011 |
| Dec 16–31 | 30″+ | 6 of 10 | Solid odds | 28" | 72" 2025 | 14" 2019 |
| Jan 1–15 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 · 1 bust | Solid odds | 23" | 71" 2025 | 5" 2016 |
| Jan 16–31 | 30″+ | 4 of 10 · 2 busts | Coin flip | 27" | 59" 2023 | 9" 2026 |
| Feb 1–15 | 24″+ | 9 of 10 | Strong bet | 34" | 79" 2020 | 8" 2009 |
| Feb 16–28/29 | 24″+ | 7 of 10 | Solid odds | 27" | 51" 2019 | 5" 2010 |
| Mar 1–15 | 24″+ | 8 of 10 | Strong bet | 31" | 56" 2023 | 3" 2015 |
| Mar 16–31 | 30″+ | 7 of 10 | Solid odds | 43" | 81" 2009 | 18" 2019 |
| Apr 1–15 | 24″+ | 10 of 10 | Strong bet | 43" | 105" 2018 | 19" 2016 |
| Apr 16–30 | 24″+ | 9 of 10 | Strong bet | 46" | 94" 2017 | 18" 2016 |
Biggest and leanest are the two ends of the same 20 winters Typical is counted from — the year is when it happened, most recent first where more than one season ties.
At the snow sensor
Reading the snow sensor…
Field notes
Lone Peak's tram serves genuinely consequential terrain — the Big Couloir requires a partner and a sign-out — atop acreage that swallows every crowd. The Challenger and Headwaters zones are expert playgrounds; the lower mountain is an intermediate ocean.
About an hour from Bozeman's airport. Ikon covers it, though the tram costs extra. Mountain Village is convenient and sterile; Town Center is improving. Cold snaps are serious — twenty below happens — so gear accordingly. The crowd-to-terrain ratio is the best among the majors.
Watch this window
We'll email you when Big Sky's odds move on the Apr 1–15 window — and the quote gets recorded as it stands today, so we can be graded on it later.
Planning a whole season? See the season outlook.
These are historical odds from the last 20 winters — not a forecast. Inside 16 days of a trip, a forecast is the better instrument; beyond that, counting real seasons is the honest play. Every number on this page is quoted under methodology v1.2.0, the same math we grade ourselves against in public.