Atlas · Colorado · CO
Arapahoe Basin
13,050′ summit · 2,530′ vert · 1,428 acres · avg 350″/yr
Strong bet — Apr 16–30
Delivered 24″+ in 10 of the last 10 seasons
Over 20 winters: 18 of 20 · typical 45", most land 34"–66"
Before you book
This bet missed 0 of the last 10.
None of the last 10 came in under 8″ — a bust, under a third of the bet.
Odds count natural snowfall only. At snowmaking-dependent resorts, early-season cover can be fine in a low-natural-snow year.
The season, window by window
The bet: 12″ of new snow per week, scaled to each window. Counted from real seasons — how our odds work.
Arapahoe Basin · the shape of a typical winter
Typical new snow, window by window
The middle season — median new snow per window, counted from the last 20 winters. A picture of timing, not a forecast. Snow is streaky; hover any window for the usual range.
| Window | Bet | Delivered | Verdict | Typical | Biggest | Leanest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1–15 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 · 4 busts | Coin flip | 18" | 45" 2022 | 1" 2016 |
| Nov 16–30 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 · 1 bust | Solid odds | 20" | 46" 2024 | 0" 2012 |
| Dec 1–15 | 24″+ | 6 of 10 · 1 bust | Solid odds | 26" | 53" 2007 | 5" 2006 |
| Dec 16–31 | 30″+ | 4 of 10 | Coin flip | 27" | 63" 2021 | 12" 2023 |
| Jan 1–15 | 24″+ | 5 of 10 · 1 bust | Coin flip | 21" | 94" 2017 | 2" 2013 |
| Jan 16–31 | 30″+ | 2 of 10 | Long shot | 21" | 44" 2014 | 10" 2022 |
| Feb 1–15 | 24″+ | 7 of 10 | Solid odds | 25" | 66" 2020 | 11" 2009 |
| Feb 16–28/29 | 24″+ | 8 of 10 | Strong bet | 25" | 56" 2026 | 11" 2009 |
| Mar 1–15 | 24″+ | 7 of 10 | Solid odds | 25" | 101" 2019 | 10" 2012 |
| Mar 16–31 | 30″+ | 8 of 10 · 1 bust | Strong bet | 38" | 61" 2016 | 3" 2026 |
| Apr 1–15 | 24″+ | 8 of 10 | Strong bet | 30" | 76" 2018 | 13" 2015 |
| Apr 16–30 | 24″+ | 10 of 10 | Strong bet | 45" | 92" 2009 | 10" 2012 |
Biggest and leanest are the two ends of the same 20 winters Typical is counted from — the year is when it happened, most recent first where more than one season ties.
At the snow sensor
Reading the snow sensor…
Field notes
The Legend: high, steep, and unpretentious. The East Wall's hike-to lines and Pallavicini's sustained steeps are expert benchmarks, the Beach parking-lot scene is the best après in the state, and the late season runs into June.
No lodging, no village — day-trip it from Keystone or Dillon. Front-row Beach spots go at dawn. Montezuma Bowl mellows the back side for mixed groups. When the I-70 giants close in April, this is where the season continues.
Watch this window
We'll email you when Arapahoe Basin's odds move on the Apr 16–30 window — and the quote gets recorded as it stands today, so we can be graded on it later.
Planning a whole season? See the season outlook.
These are historical odds from the last 20 winters — not a forecast. Inside 16 days of a trip, a forecast is the better instrument; beyond that, counting real seasons is the honest play. Every number on this page is quoted under methodology v1.2.0, the same math we grade ourselves against in public.